Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by aligned forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration projections showing a daytime peak around 24-26°C at Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution station per Wunderground data. This reflects the ongoing seasonal warming in the heat-trapping Sichuan Basin, with May climatological highs averaging 26-28°C and yesterday's forecast nearing 28°C amid high-pressure dominance. Forecasted passing showers introduce minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover, but model ensembles deem sub-23°C outcomes unlikely barring an unforeseen cool air intrusion; watch afternoon hourly observations for final confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chengdu el 15 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chengdu el 15 de mayo?
23°C o más 91%
22°C 5.6%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
NUEVO
$13,897 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,897 Vol.
15 may 2026
13°C o menos
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C o más
91%
23°C o más 91%
22°C 5.6%
21°C <1%
20°C <1%
NUEVO
$13,897 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,897 Vol.
15 may 2026
13°C o menos
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,150 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,339 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$720 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$644 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,635 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,448 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,523 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,680 Vol.
6%
23°C o más
$1,238 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by aligned forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration projections showing a daytime peak around 24-26°C at Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution station per Wunderground data. This reflects the ongoing seasonal warming in the heat-trapping Sichuan Basin, with May climatological highs averaging 26-28°C and yesterday's forecast nearing 28°C amid high-pressure dominance. Forecasted passing showers introduce minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover, but model ensembles deem sub-23°C outcomes unlikely barring an unforeseen cool air intrusion; watch afternoon hourly observations for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$13,897Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by aligned forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration projections showing a daytime peak around 24-26°C at Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution station per Wunderground data. This reflects the ongoing seasonal warming in the heat-trapping Sichuan Basin, with May climatological highs averaging 26-28°C and yesterday's forecast nearing 28°C amid high-pressure dominance. Forecasted passing showers introduce minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover, but model ensembles deem sub-23°C outcomes unlikely barring an unforeseen cool air intrusion; watch afternoon hourly observations for final confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,897Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 23°C or higher in Chengdu on May 15, driven by aligned forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration projections showing a daytime peak around 24-26°C at Shuangliu International Airport—the market's resolution station per Wunderground data. This reflects the ongoing seasonal warming in the heat-trapping Sichuan Basin, with May climatological highs averaging 26-28°C and yesterday's forecast nearing 28°C amid high-pressure dominance. Forecasted passing showers introduce minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover, but model ensembles deem sub-23°C outcomes unlikely barring an unforeseen cool air intrusion; watch afternoon hourly observations for final confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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