Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Beijing's highest temperature on May 2, with models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles averaging near 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and possible showers limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. This keeps implied probabilities clustered at 29.5% for 22°C, 26% for 21°C or below, and 24.5% for 23°C—below early May climatological norms of 25-27°C driven by spring warming trends. Key differentiators include potential for partial clearing in afternoon hours boosting to 23°C or thicker overcast capping at 21°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution via official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 2?
22°C 30%
23°C 25%
21°C or below 19%
24°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
21°C or below
19%
22°C
30%
23°C
25%
24°C
12%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
22°C 30%
23°C 25%
21°C or below 19%
24°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
21°C or below
$1,653 Vol.
19%
22°C
$833 Vol.
30%
23°C
$464 Vol.
25%
24°C
$318 Vol.
12%
25°C
$324 Vol.
6%
26°C
$988 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,594 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,282 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$722 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Beijing's highest temperature on May 2, with models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles averaging near 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and possible showers limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. This keeps implied probabilities clustered at 29.5% for 22°C, 26% for 21°C or below, and 24.5% for 23°C—below early May climatological norms of 25-27°C driven by spring warming trends. Key differentiators include potential for partial clearing in afternoon hours boosting to 23°C or thicker overcast capping at 21°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volumen
$9,671Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Beijing's highest temperature on May 2, with models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles averaging near 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and possible showers limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. This keeps implied probabilities clustered at 29.5% for 22°C, 26% for 21°C or below, and 24.5% for 23°C—below early May climatological norms of 25-27°C driven by spring warming trends. Key differentiators include potential for partial clearing in afternoon hours boosting to 23°C or thicker overcast capping at 21°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,671Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Beijing's highest temperature on May 2, with models like the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensembles averaging near 22°C amid persistent cloud cover and possible showers limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. This keeps implied probabilities clustered at 29.5% for 22°C, 26% for 21°C or below, and 24.5% for 23°C—below early May climatological norms of 25-27°C driven by spring warming trends. Key differentiators include potential for partial clearing in afternoon hours boosting to 23°C or thicker overcast capping at 21°C; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and 00Z model runs today for refinements ahead of resolution via official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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