Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.7% implied probability of an interest rate increase by Banco de la República at its April 30, 2026 meeting, driven by accelerating inflation that hit 5.6% year-over-year in March—up from 5.3% in February—remaining well above the 3% target amid rising core measures at 5.79%. Recent 100 basis point hikes to 11.25% in prior meetings underscore the bank's tightening stance to combat persistent price pressures from wage growth, solid GDP expansion at 2.6% in 2025, and external shocks. Government tensions, including ministerial criticism of prior decisions, have not swayed capital-backed sentiment. A hold would require unexpectedly dovish inflation data or policy rift escalation, though risks remain low ahead of today's resolution.