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Politics·Culture

Will Trump dance on...?

icon for Will Trump dance on...?
Politics·Culture

Will Trump dance on...?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$4,124 Vol.

Polymarket

May 1

$4,120 Vol.

42%

May 2

$2 Vol.

28%

May 3

$2 Vol.

26%

May 4

$0 Vol.

41%

May 5

$0 Vol.

42%

May 6

$0 Vol.

41%

May 7

$0 Vol.

41%

May 8

$0 Vol.

43%

May 9

$0 Vol.

43%

May 10

$0 Vol.

41%

May 11

$0 Vol.

41%

May 12

$0 Vol.

41%

May 13

$0 Vol.

41%

May 14

$0 Vol.

41%

May 15

$0 Vol.

43%

May 16

$0 Vol.

41%

May 17

$0 Vol.

42%

May 18

$0 Vol.

41%

May 19

$0 Vol.

41%

May 20

$0 Vol.

41%

May 21

$0 Vol.

41%

May 22

$0 Vol.

41%

May 23

$0 Vol.

41%

May 24

$0 Vol.

41%

May 25

$0 Vol.

41%

May 26

$0 Vol.

41%

May 27

$0 Vol.

41%

May 28

$0 Vol.

41%

May 29

$0 Vol.

41%

May 30

$0 Vol.

41%

May 31

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.President Trump's signature "YMCA" fist-pump dance, a viral pop culture staple from his high-energy rallies, continues to captivate audiences and fuel Polymarket speculation on whether he'll reprise it at public events. Recent yes resolutions came from his April 17 appearances at the Turning Point USA "Build the Red Wall" summit in Arizona and a Nevada campaign-style gathering, where packed crowds erupted as he shuffled to the beat post-speech. Formal occasions like the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner saw no such moment, halted by a security evacuation. Traders eye the PGA Tour Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral May 2-3 as a prime catalyst, given the festive golf crowd and his property ties, though resolution hinges on verifiable video within daily ET windows through May 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.

AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered.

Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on video footage.
Volume
$4,124
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.President Trump's signature "YMCA" fist-pump dance, a viral pop culture staple from his high-energy rallies, continues to captivate audiences and fuel Polymarket speculation on whether he'll reprise it at public events. Recent yes resolutions came from his April 17 appearances at the Turning Point USA "Build the Red Wall" summit in Arizona and a Nevada campaign-style gathering, where packed crowds erupted as he shuffled to the beat post-speech. Formal occasions like the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner saw no such moment, halted by a security evacuation. Traders eye the PGA Tour Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral May 2-3 as a prime catalyst, given the festive golf crowd and his property ties, though resolution hinges on verifiable video within daily ET windows through May 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify.

AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered.

Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on video footage.
Volume
$4,124
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump dance on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 8" at 43%, followed by "May 9" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump dance on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump dance on...?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Trump dance on...?" is "May 8" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 9" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump dance on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.