Recent polling averages for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 23-25 seats, down from its 32-seat total in 2022, reflecting voter fatigue after prolonged conflict and a consolidated opposition bloc led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid that polls near or ahead of the pro-Netanyahu coalition. Developments tied to the Israel-Iran war and related security operations have contributed to downward pressure on Likud support in surveys from late May and early June, while Netanyahu's confirmation of his candidacy has not reversed those trends. The 3.25% electoral threshold and bloc dynamics further shape seat projections, with most models showing the current coalition falling short of 61 seats. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling patterns as the primary driver behind the 70% implied probability that Likud loses seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
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27 oct 2026
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27 oct 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 23-25 seats, down from its 32-seat total in 2022, reflecting voter fatigue after prolonged conflict and a consolidated opposition bloc led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid that polls near or ahead of the pro-Netanyahu coalition. Developments tied to the Israel-Iran war and related security operations have contributed to downward pressure on Likud support in surveys from late May and early June, while Netanyahu's confirmation of his candidacy has not reversed those trends. The 3.25% electoral threshold and bloc dynamics further shape seat projections, with most models showing the current coalition falling short of 61 seats. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling patterns as the primary driver behind the 70% implied probability that Likud loses seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$1,412Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 23-25 seats, down from its 32-seat total in 2022, reflecting voter fatigue after prolonged conflict and a consolidated opposition bloc led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid that polls near or ahead of the pro-Netanyahu coalition. Developments tied to the Israel-Iran war and related security operations have contributed to downward pressure on Likud support in surveys from late May and early June, while Netanyahu's confirmation of his candidacy has not reversed those trends. The 3.25% electoral threshold and bloc dynamics further shape seat projections, with most models showing the current coalition falling short of 61 seats. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling patterns as the primary driver behind the 70% implied probability that Likud loses seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$1,412Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election project Likud at roughly 23-25 seats, down from its 32-seat total in 2022, reflecting voter fatigue after prolonged conflict and a consolidated opposition bloc led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid that polls near or ahead of the pro-Netanyahu coalition. Developments tied to the Israel-Iran war and related security operations have contributed to downward pressure on Likud support in surveys from late May and early June, while Netanyahu's confirmation of his candidacy has not reversed those trends. The 3.25% electoral threshold and bloc dynamics further shape seat projections, with most models showing the current coalition falling short of 61 seats. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling patterns as the primary driver behind the 70% implied probability that Likud loses seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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