**Israel's Supreme Court rulings since 2024 have eliminated the prior legal basis for broad exemptions, requiring Haredi yeshiva students to be subject to the Defense Service Law and prompting draft orders alongside cuts to non-compliant yeshiva funding.** Coalition efforts to enact new legislation preserving exemptions for full-time Torah study—while nominally raising enlistment targets—have repeatedly stalled. In May 2026, the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) rejected the latest coalition draft as inadequate, citing insufficient protections and raising the prospect of early elections. Netanyahu's government faces internal Likud divisions, opposition criticism, and military needs amid ongoing conflicts, limiting momentum for a bill before the September 30, 2026 deadline. Recent protests, low compliance with existing orders, and procedural delays in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee further underscore the barriers. Traders assign a low probability to passage because these political and institutional frictions make timely enactment unlikely absent a major shift in coalition dynamics or court intervention.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israel's Supreme Court rulings since 2024 have eliminated the prior legal basis for broad exemptions, requiring Haredi yeshiva students to be subject to the Defense Service Law and prompting draft orders alongside cuts to non-compliant yeshiva funding.** Coalition efforts to enact new legislation preserving exemptions for full-time Torah study—while nominally raising enlistment targets—have repeatedly stalled. In May 2026, the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) rejected the latest coalition draft as inadequate, citing insufficient protections and raising the prospect of early elections.
Netanyahu's government faces internal Likud divisions, opposition criticism, and military needs amid ongoing conflicts, limiting momentum for a bill before the September 30, 2026 deadline. Recent protests, low compliance with existing orders, and procedural delays in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee further underscore the barriers. Traders assign a low probability to passage because these political and institutional frictions make timely enactment unlikely absent a major shift in coalition dynamics or court intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$1,994Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israel's Supreme Court rulings since 2024 have eliminated the prior legal basis for broad exemptions, requiring Haredi yeshiva students to be subject to the Defense Service Law and prompting draft orders alongside cuts to non-compliant yeshiva funding.** Coalition efforts to enact new legislation preserving exemptions for full-time Torah study—while nominally raising enlistment targets—have repeatedly stalled. In May 2026, the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) rejected the latest coalition draft as inadequate, citing insufficient protections and raising the prospect of early elections.
Netanyahu's government faces internal Likud divisions, opposition criticism, and military needs amid ongoing conflicts, limiting momentum for a bill before the September 30, 2026 deadline. Recent protests, low compliance with existing orders, and procedural delays in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee further underscore the barriers. Traders assign a low probability to passage because these political and institutional frictions make timely enactment unlikely absent a major shift in coalition dynamics or court intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,994Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Israel's Supreme Court rulings since 2024 have eliminated the prior legal basis for broad exemptions, requiring Haredi yeshiva students to be subject to the Defense Service Law and prompting draft orders alongside cuts to non-compliant yeshiva funding.** Coalition efforts to enact new legislation preserving exemptions for full-time Torah study—while nominally raising enlistment targets—have repeatedly stalled. In May 2026, the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) rejected the latest coalition draft as inadequate, citing insufficient protections and raising the prospect of early elections. Netanyahu's government faces internal Likud divisions, opposition criticism, and military needs amid ongoing conflicts, limiting momentum for a bill before the September 30, 2026 deadline. Recent protests, low compliance with existing orders, and procedural delays in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee further underscore the barriers. Traders assign a low probability to passage because these political and institutional frictions make timely enactment unlikely absent a major shift in coalition dynamics or court intervention.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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