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Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?

icon for Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
Geopolitics·Ukraine

Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?

11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental advances in the gray zone southwest of Riasne in Sumy Oblast, entrenching in nearby forests and the village's southwestern outskirts as of mid-April 2026, but remain unable to seize the key intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E required for market resolution per ISW maps. Ukrainian defenses continue holding the settlement core amid ongoing Russian airstrikes, including one on April 29 targeting positions in Riasne, and probing assaults from the border near Hrabovske. Broader trader consensus reflects Ukraine's success in blunting Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive across fronts, with slow territorial gains elsewhere underscoring significant barriers to a breakthrough by May 31 despite escalation signals. Late surges or reinforcements could shift dynamics, though current stalemate favors no capture.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png

Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png

Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$748
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental advances in the gray zone southwest of Riasne in Sumy Oblast, entrenching in nearby forests and the village's southwestern outskirts as of mid-April 2026, but remain unable to seize the key intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E required for market resolution per ISW maps. Ukrainian defenses continue holding the settlement core amid ongoing Russian airstrikes, including one on April 29 targeting positions in Riasne, and probing assaults from the border near Hrabovske. Broader trader consensus reflects Ukraine's success in blunting Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive across fronts, with slow territorial gains elsewhere underscoring significant barriers to a breakthrough by May 31 despite escalation signals. Late surges or reinforcements could shift dynamics, though current stalemate favors no capture.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png

Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png

Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$748
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.