Traders assign a 97.4% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because no active bilateral negotiations appear close to formalization. Kazakhstan acceded in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged later that month, but subsequent diplomatic efforts have focused on larger states such as Saudi Arabia and Syria, where progress remains conditional on Palestinian issues, regional security arrangements, or an Iran settlement. Recent U.S. calls in May 2026 for expanded participation produced no immediate commitments, and standard diplomatic timelines for public announcements, treaty drafting, and ratification make last-minute additions improbable within the remaining window. A surprise announcement tied to an unforeseen breakthrough could still shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates limited near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$63,390 Vol.
$63,390 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$63,390 Vol.
$63,390 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.4% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because no active bilateral negotiations appear close to formalization. Kazakhstan acceded in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged later that month, but subsequent diplomatic efforts have focused on larger states such as Saudi Arabia and Syria, where progress remains conditional on Palestinian issues, regional security arrangements, or an Iran settlement. Recent U.S. calls in May 2026 for expanded participation produced no immediate commitments, and standard diplomatic timelines for public announcements, treaty drafting, and ratification make last-minute additions improbable within the remaining window. A surprise announcement tied to an unforeseen breakthrough could still shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates limited near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$63,390End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.4% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because no active bilateral negotiations appear close to formalization. Kazakhstan acceded in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged later that month, but subsequent diplomatic efforts have focused on larger states such as Saudi Arabia and Syria, where progress remains conditional on Palestinian issues, regional security arrangements, or an Iran settlement. Recent U.S. calls in May 2026 for expanded participation produced no immediate commitments, and standard diplomatic timelines for public announcements, treaty drafting, and ratification make last-minute additions improbable within the remaining window. A surprise announcement tied to an unforeseen breakthrough could still shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates limited near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,390End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.4% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because no active bilateral negotiations appear close to formalization. Kazakhstan acceded in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged later that month, but subsequent diplomatic efforts have focused on larger states such as Saudi Arabia and Syria, where progress remains conditional on Palestinian issues, regional security arrangements, or an Iran settlement. Recent U.S. calls in May 2026 for expanded participation produced no immediate commitments, and standard diplomatic timelines for public announcements, treaty drafting, and ratification make last-minute additions improbable within the remaining window. A surprise announcement tied to an unforeseen breakthrough could still shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates limited near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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