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icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

icon for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$718,906 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$718,906 Vol.

Polymarket

Somaliland

$68,688 Vol.

33%

Lebanon

$60,389 Vol.

23%

Egypt

$69 Vol.

28%

Pakistan

$161 Vol.

16%

Kuwait

$47,185 Vol.

14%

Azerbaijan

$53,635 Vol.

13%

Turkey

$217 Vol.

13%

Jordan

$87 Vol.

19%

Oman

$161,928 Vol.

11%

Syria

$148,652 Vol.

10%

Qatar

$56 Vol.

16%

Saudi Arabia

$177,838 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential addition to the Abraham Accords but continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed in early 2026 reporting amid ongoing regional tensions.** Efforts by the second Trump administration to expand the framework have centered on linking further accessions to broader Middle East deals, including post-conflict arrangements after the 2025–2026 Iran-related hostilities. In May 2026, President Trump publicly urged leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and others to join as part of any Iran settlement. Kazakhstan formally acceded in November 2025, while Somaliland pledged participation in December 2025; these steps built on existing diplomatic ties rather than new breakthroughs. Smaller or observer candidates such as Oman, Kuwait, or Indonesia have surfaced in analyses as lower-barrier possibilities, though no firm timelines or commitments have emerged. Structural barriers—including Saudi requirements for U.S. security guarantees and Palestinian concessions—along with domestic political sensitivities continue to limit near-term movement before the 2027 cutoff. Trader focus centers on whether U.S. diplomatic pressure or shifting regional security dynamics can overcome these hurdles in the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$718,906
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential addition to the Abraham Accords but continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed in early 2026 reporting amid ongoing regional tensions.** Efforts by the second Trump administration to expand the framework have centered on linking further accessions to broader Middle East deals, including post-conflict arrangements after the 2025–2026 Iran-related hostilities. In May 2026, President Trump publicly urged leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and others to join as part of any Iran settlement. Kazakhstan formally acceded in November 2025, while Somaliland pledged participation in December 2025; these steps built on existing diplomatic ties rather than new breakthroughs. Smaller or observer candidates such as Oman, Kuwait, or Indonesia have surfaced in analyses as lower-barrier possibilities, though no firm timelines or commitments have emerged. Structural barriers—including Saudi requirements for U.S. security guarantees and Palestinian concessions—along with domestic political sensitivities continue to limit near-term movement before the 2027 cutoff. Trader focus centers on whether U.S. diplomatic pressure or shifting regional security dynamics can overcome these hurdles in the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$718,906
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Somaliland" at 33%, followed by "Egypt" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" has generated $718.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" is "Somaliland" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Egypt" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.