Trader consensus around a 97% probability of no new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 reflects the short remaining timeline and absence of active normalization negotiations or diplomatic timelines capable of producing a formal signing agreement in the next two weeks. Recent U.S. diplomatic outreach in May 2026, including calls linking expansion to an Iran-related framework, has not yielded concrete progress with prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to tie recognition to Palestinian statehood steps, or other states citing bilateral obstacles. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent the most recent expansions, but no comparable developments have advanced to the signature stage. While a last-minute announcement remains theoretically possible through accelerated bilateral talks, the procedural requirements for drafting, approving, and publicly executing such agreements make an outcome before the deadline highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$63,390 Vol.
$63,390 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$63,390 Vol.
$63,390 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 97% probability of no new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 reflects the short remaining timeline and absence of active normalization negotiations or diplomatic timelines capable of producing a formal signing agreement in the next two weeks. Recent U.S. diplomatic outreach in May 2026, including calls linking expansion to an Iran-related framework, has not yielded concrete progress with prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to tie recognition to Palestinian statehood steps, or other states citing bilateral obstacles. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent the most recent expansions, but no comparable developments have advanced to the signature stage. While a last-minute announcement remains theoretically possible through accelerated bilateral talks, the procedural requirements for drafting, approving, and publicly executing such agreements make an outcome before the deadline highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$63,390End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 97% probability of no new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 reflects the short remaining timeline and absence of active normalization negotiations or diplomatic timelines capable of producing a formal signing agreement in the next two weeks. Recent U.S. diplomatic outreach in May 2026, including calls linking expansion to an Iran-related framework, has not yielded concrete progress with prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to tie recognition to Palestinian statehood steps, or other states citing bilateral obstacles. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent the most recent expansions, but no comparable developments have advanced to the signature stage. While a last-minute announcement remains theoretically possible through accelerated bilateral talks, the procedural requirements for drafting, approving, and publicly executing such agreements make an outcome before the deadline highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,390End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 97% probability of no new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 reflects the short remaining timeline and absence of active normalization negotiations or diplomatic timelines capable of producing a formal signing agreement in the next two weeks. Recent U.S. diplomatic outreach in May 2026, including calls linking expansion to an Iran-related framework, has not yielded concrete progress with prospective participants such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to tie recognition to Palestinian statehood steps, or other states citing bilateral obstacles. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent the most recent expansions, but no comparable developments have advanced to the signature stage. While a last-minute announcement remains theoretically possible through accelerated bilateral talks, the procedural requirements for drafting, approving, and publicly executing such agreements make an outcome before the deadline highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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