Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 collapse of Metropolitan Capital Bank—the first of the year—stemming from a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan, with FDIC cleanup costs at $19.7 million. This event underscores persistent CRE vulnerabilities, as office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities hit a record 12.3% in January amid $875 billion in sector debt maturities this year, straining regional banks with outsized exposures often exceeding 300% of equity. Higher refinancing rates post-zero-era borrowing exacerbate unrealized losses, while Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight real estate price declines. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings disclosures and evolving FDIC problem bank list updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,918 Vol.
$12,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$12,918 Vol.
$12,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 collapse of Metropolitan Capital Bank—the first of the year—stemming from a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan, with FDIC cleanup costs at $19.7 million. This event underscores persistent CRE vulnerabilities, as office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities hit a record 12.3% in January amid $875 billion in sector debt maturities this year, straining regional banks with outsized exposures often exceeding 300% of equity. Higher refinancing rates post-zero-era borrowing exacerbate unrealized losses, while Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight real estate price declines. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings disclosures and evolving FDIC problem bank list updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$12,918End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 collapse of Metropolitan Capital Bank—the first of the year—stemming from a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan, with FDIC cleanup costs at $19.7 million. This event underscores persistent CRE vulnerabilities, as office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities hit a record 12.3% in January amid $875 billion in sector debt maturities this year, straining regional banks with outsized exposures often exceeding 300% of equity. Higher refinancing rates post-zero-era borrowing exacerbate unrealized losses, while Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight real estate price declines. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings disclosures and evolving FDIC problem bank list updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$12,918End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for a US bank failure by December 31, 2026, propelled by the January 30 collapse of Metropolitan Capital Bank—the first of the year—stemming from a troubled commercial real estate (CRE) loan, with FDIC cleanup costs at $19.7 million. This event underscores persistent CRE vulnerabilities, as office loan delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities hit a record 12.3% in January amid $875 billion in sector debt maturities this year, straining regional banks with outsized exposures often exceeding 300% of equity. Higher refinancing rates post-zero-era borrowing exacerbate unrealized losses, while Federal Reserve 2026 stress test scenarios highlight real estate price declines. Key catalysts include Q2 earnings disclosures and evolving FDIC problem bank list updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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