**Traders see an overwhelming 93.5% probability of no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75%.** Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest level in three years—driven primarily by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI also edged higher to 2.9%. This persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance rather than ease or tighten policy. CME FedWatch futures align closely with this outlook, pricing minimal odds for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. The June 16–17 meeting and July 14 CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they reveal material cooling in price pressures or a sharper economic slowdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.7%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,832,432 Vol.
$9,832,432 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.7%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,832,432 Vol.
$9,832,432 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,444,912 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$1,069,699 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$1,634,446 Vol.
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$4,115,474 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,567,907 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Traders see an overwhelming 93.5% probability of no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75%.** Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest level in three years—driven primarily by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI also edged higher to 2.9%. This persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance rather than ease or tighten policy. CME FedWatch futures align closely with this outlook, pricing minimal odds for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. The June 16–17 meeting and July 14 CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they reveal material cooling in price pressures or a sharper economic slowdown.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$9,832,432Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Traders see an overwhelming 93.5% probability of no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75%.** Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest level in three years—driven primarily by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI also edged higher to 2.9%. This persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance rather than ease or tighten policy. CME FedWatch futures align closely with this outlook, pricing minimal odds for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. The June 16–17 meeting and July 14 CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they reveal material cooling in price pressures or a sharper economic slowdown.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$9,832,432Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders see an overwhelming 93.5% probability of no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75%.** Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—the highest level in three years—driven primarily by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Core CPI also edged higher to 2.9%. This persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has reinforced expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance rather than ease or tighten policy. CME FedWatch futures align closely with this outlook, pricing minimal odds for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. The June 16–17 meeting and July 14 CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if they reveal material cooling in price pressures or a sharper economic slowdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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