Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have driven market-implied odds sharply toward no federal funds rate cuts through the remainder of 2026. The target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%, with May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures also firmed. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.3%, reinforcing the case for a wait-and-see stance ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. Economists in recent Reuters polling largely project steady policy this year, and futures markets have shifted to price a possible hike by year-end as the Committee appears poised to drop its easing bias. Incoming inflation prints and labor data remain the key swing factors.