Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical oil shocks and a resilient labor market have pushed market-implied odds for any 2026 Fed rate cuts sharply lower, with Polymarket pricing zero cuts at roughly 77-79% and economists assigning nearly 70% probability to the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end. Recent data revisions and stronger-than-expected employment readings reinforced this consensus, prompting Goldman Sachs and others to shift projected easing into 2027. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting—Chair Kevin Warsh’s first—represents the immediate catalyst, with futures and polls assigning 97%+ odds of no change and potential removal of the easing bias in the statement. Subsequent meetings through December and upcoming inflation prints will further shape the rate path priced by traders.