**Market-implied odds for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5%, reflecting trader consensus on steady policy amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions.** Recent May 2026 data showed CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month with year-over-year readings above target, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Fed communications and March 2026 dot plot projections have emphasized slower disinflation progress, with markets now pricing minimal or no easing through year-end. The closely contested secondary outcome of Pause–Pause–Cut (22.8%) incorporates potential later-year relief if inflation moderates, though near-term data releases and the upcoming June 16–17 meeting—with its Summary of Economic Projections—remain the key near-term catalysts likely to reinforce the hold stance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
20%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,038 Vol.
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$328 Vol.
20%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
1%
Other
$287 Vol.
14%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Market-implied odds for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5%, reflecting trader consensus on steady policy amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions.**
Recent May 2026 data showed CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month with year-over-year readings above target, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Fed communications and March 2026 dot plot projections have emphasized slower disinflation progress, with markets now pricing minimal or no easing through year-end. The closely contested secondary outcome of Pause–Pause–Cut (22.8%) incorporates potential later-year relief if inflation moderates, though near-term data releases and the upcoming June 16–17 meeting—with its Summary of Economic Projections—remain the key near-term catalysts likely to reinforce the hold stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Market-implied odds for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5%, reflecting trader consensus on steady policy amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions.**
Recent May 2026 data showed CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month with year-over-year readings above target, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Fed communications and March 2026 dot plot projections have emphasized slower disinflation progress, with markets now pricing minimal or no easing through year-end. The closely contested secondary outcome of Pause–Pause–Cut (22.8%) incorporates potential later-year relief if inflation moderates, though near-term data releases and the upcoming June 16–17 meeting—with its Summary of Economic Projections—remain the key near-term catalysts likely to reinforce the hold stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause path at 66.5%, reflecting trader consensus on steady policy amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions.** Recent May 2026 data showed CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month with year-over-year readings above target, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Fed communications and March 2026 dot plot projections have emphasized slower disinflation progress, with markets now pricing minimal or no easing through year-end. The closely contested secondary outcome of Pause–Pause–Cut (22.8%) incorporates potential later-year relief if inflation moderates, though near-term data releases and the upcoming June 16–17 meeting—with its Summary of Economic Projections—remain the key near-term catalysts likely to reinforce the hold stance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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