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Economy·Macro Indicators

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

icon for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Economy·Macro Indicators

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Jul 16

Jul 16

4.6-4.9% 79%

4.9-5.2% 11%

4.3-4.6% 6.5%

5.2-5.5% <1%

Polymarket

$63,311 Vol.

4.6-4.9% 79%

4.9-5.2% 11%

4.3-4.6% 6.5%

5.2-5.5% <1%

Polymarket

$63,311 Vol.

<4.0%

$5,636 Vol.

1%

4.0-4.3%

$6,217 Vol.

<1%

4.3-4.6%

$6,632 Vol.

7%

4.6-4.9%

$12,633 Vol.

79%

4.9-5.2%

$7,482 Vol.

11%

5.2-5.5%

$7,980 Vol.

1%

5.5-5.8%

$6,030 Vol.

<1%

5.8-6.1%

$5,531 Vol.

<1%

6.1%+

$5,170 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 year-on-year GDP growth faces a mix of resilient manufacturing and exports alongside softening domestic indicators. Q1 posted 5.0 percent expansion, but April data showed industrial output at 4.1 percent, retail sales at just 0.2 percent, and fixed-asset investment contracting, reflecting weak consumption, persistent property weakness, and higher energy costs linked to external shocks. Policymakers set a 2026 target range of 4.5–5.0 percent, emphasizing high-quality development and fiscal support while exports in advanced sectors remain a buffer. These trends position the 4.6–4.9 percent interval as the central expectation among traders, with lower bands reflecting downside risks from subdued demand and higher bands limited by structural headwinds.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$63,311
End Date
Jul 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 year-on-year GDP growth faces a mix of resilient manufacturing and exports alongside softening domestic indicators. Q1 posted 5.0 percent expansion, but April data showed industrial output at 4.1 percent, retail sales at just 0.2 percent, and fixed-asset investment contracting, reflecting weak consumption, persistent property weakness, and higher energy costs linked to external shocks. Policymakers set a 2026 target range of 4.5–5.0 percent, emphasizing high-quality development and fiscal support while exports in advanced sectors remain a buffer. These trends position the 4.6–4.9 percent interval as the central expectation among traders, with lower bands reflecting downside risks from subdued demand and higher bands limited by structural headwinds.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$63,311
End Date
Jul 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

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Frequently Asked Questions

"China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.6-4.9%" at 79%, followed by "4.9-5.2%" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" has generated $63.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" is "4.6-4.9%" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.9-5.2%" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.