Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in 2026. The target range stands at 3.50-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, and traders now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end per CME FedWatch data, while most economists still project a hold through December. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance with near-certainty, but subsequent releases on CPI, employment, and the September dot plot will serve as key catalysts that could reinforce or ease hawkish positioning amid above-target inflation readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$171,862 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
25%
October Meeting
34%
$171,862 Vol.
June Meeting
$30,592 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$2,681 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$4,058 Vol.
25%
October Meeting
$3,223 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in 2026. The target range stands at 3.50-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, and traders now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end per CME FedWatch data, while most economists still project a hold through December. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance with near-certainty, but subsequent releases on CPI, employment, and the September dot plot will serve as key catalysts that could reinforce or ease hawkish positioning amid above-target inflation readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$171,862End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in 2026. The target range stands at 3.50-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, and traders now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end per CME FedWatch data, while most economists still project a hold through December. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance with near-certainty, but subsequent releases on CPI, employment, and the September dot plot will serve as key catalysts that could reinforce or ease hawkish positioning amid above-target inflation readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$171,862End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by the strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in 2026. The target range stands at 3.50-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, and traders now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point increase by year-end per CME FedWatch data, while most economists still project a hold through December. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance with near-certainty, but subsequent releases on CPI, employment, and the September dot plot will serve as key catalysts that could reinforce or ease hawkish positioning amid above-target inflation readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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