Elevated inflation readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainties around Middle East oil prices are anchoring trader expectations for no change in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate at its August meeting, with that outcome carrying a 68.8% market-implied probability. May CPI rose to 4.72% year-over-year, above the 3% target midpoint, while Focus survey projections for 2026 inflation and year-end Selic have been revised higher in recent weeks to around 4.9% and 13.5%, respectively. Following the two 25-basis-point cuts that brought the benchmark to 14.50% in April, Copom has signaled caution and will reassess transmission effects plus external risks at the June 16–17 meeting. These factors explain why a 25 bp cut registers only 27.5% odds and larger moves remain below 5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Brazil decision in August?
Bank of Brazil decision in August?
No Change 68.8%
25 bps decrease 28%
50+ bps decrease 4.4%
25 bps increase <1%
$15,729 Vol.
$15,729 Vol.
4 ago 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
1%
No Change
69%
25 bps decrease
28%
50+ bps decrease
4%
No Change 68.8%
25 bps decrease 28%
50+ bps decrease 4.4%
25 bps increase <1%
$15,729 Vol.
$15,729 Vol.
4 ago 2026
50+ bps increase
$3,755 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$2,577 Vol.
1%
No Change
$3,891 Vol.
69%
25 bps decrease
$2,702 Vol.
28%
50+ bps decrease
$2,804 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated inflation readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainties around Middle East oil prices are anchoring trader expectations for no change in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate at its August meeting, with that outcome carrying a 68.8% market-implied probability. May CPI rose to 4.72% year-over-year, above the 3% target midpoint, while Focus survey projections for 2026 inflation and year-end Selic have been revised higher in recent weeks to around 4.9% and 13.5%, respectively. Following the two 25-basis-point cuts that brought the benchmark to 14.50% in April, Copom has signaled caution and will reassess transmission effects plus external risks at the June 16–17 meeting. These factors explain why a 25 bp cut registers only 27.5% odds and larger moves remain below 5%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$15,729Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated inflation readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainties around Middle East oil prices are anchoring trader expectations for no change in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate at its August meeting, with that outcome carrying a 68.8% market-implied probability. May CPI rose to 4.72% year-over-year, above the 3% target midpoint, while Focus survey projections for 2026 inflation and year-end Selic have been revised higher in recent weeks to around 4.9% and 13.5%, respectively. Following the two 25-basis-point cuts that brought the benchmark to 14.50% in April, Copom has signaled caution and will reassess transmission effects plus external risks at the June 16–17 meeting. These factors explain why a 25 bp cut registers only 27.5% odds and larger moves remain below 5%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$15,729Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and persistent geopolitical uncertainties around Middle East oil prices are anchoring trader expectations for no change in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate at its August meeting, with that outcome carrying a 68.8% market-implied probability. May CPI rose to 4.72% year-over-year, above the 3% target midpoint, while Focus survey projections for 2026 inflation and year-end Selic have been revised higher in recent weeks to around 4.9% and 13.5%, respectively. Following the two 25-basis-point cuts that brought the benchmark to 14.50% in April, Copom has signaled caution and will reassess transmission effects plus external risks at the June 16–17 meeting. These factors explain why a 25 bp cut registers only 27.5% odds and larger moves remain below 5%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes