Strong semiconductor exports and a robust Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (3.8% year-on-year) underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.5–3.9% for Q2 year-on-year growth, with those three brackets each near 43%. Traders price in continued IT-driven momentum and improving domestic demand while factoring in base effects and potential moderation to roughly 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with Bank of Korea guidance. Recent May CPI at 3.1% year-on-year signals persistent price pressures that could influence policy support, yet external risks from Middle East energy costs and global trade uncertainty keep the distribution balanced. The next key catalyst remains the Q2 advance release expected in July, which will resolve the market amid ongoing semiconductor cycle strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 44%
2.5–2.9% 43.0%
3.5–3.9% 34.0%
4.5%+ 19.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
9%
2.0–2.4%
13%
2.5–2.9%
43%
3.0–3.4%
47%
3.5–3.9%
25%
4.0–4.4%
10%
4.5%+
20%
3.0–3.4% 44%
2.5–2.9% 43.0%
3.5–3.9% 34.0%
4.5%+ 19.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
$335 Vol.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$233 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.4%
$410 Vol.
13%
2.5–2.9%
$264 Vol.
43%
3.0–3.4%
$310 Vol.
47%
3.5–3.9%
$528 Vol.
25%
4.0–4.4%
$340 Vol.
10%
4.5%+
$332 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and a robust Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (3.8% year-on-year) underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.5–3.9% for Q2 year-on-year growth, with those three brackets each near 43%. Traders price in continued IT-driven momentum and improving domestic demand while factoring in base effects and potential moderation to roughly 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with Bank of Korea guidance. Recent May CPI at 3.1% year-on-year signals persistent price pressures that could influence policy support, yet external risks from Middle East energy costs and global trade uncertainty keep the distribution balanced. The next key catalyst remains the Q2 advance release expected in July, which will resolve the market amid ongoing semiconductor cycle strength.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$2,751End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and a robust Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (3.8% year-on-year) underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.5–3.9% for Q2 year-on-year growth, with those three brackets each near 43%. Traders price in continued IT-driven momentum and improving domestic demand while factoring in base effects and potential moderation to roughly 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with Bank of Korea guidance. Recent May CPI at 3.1% year-on-year signals persistent price pressures that could influence policy support, yet external risks from Middle East energy costs and global trade uncertainty keep the distribution balanced. The next key catalyst remains the Q2 advance release expected in July, which will resolve the market amid ongoing semiconductor cycle strength.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$2,751End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor exports and a robust Q1 2026 GDP print of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter (3.8% year-on-year) underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.5–3.9% for Q2 year-on-year growth, with those three brackets each near 43%. Traders price in continued IT-driven momentum and improving domestic demand while factoring in base effects and potential moderation to roughly 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with Bank of Korea guidance. Recent May CPI at 3.1% year-on-year signals persistent price pressures that could influence policy support, yet external risks from Middle East energy costs and global trade uncertainty keep the distribution balanced. The next key catalyst remains the Q2 advance release expected in July, which will resolve the market amid ongoing semiconductor cycle strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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