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Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of April?
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$498,574 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$498,574 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$72,173 Vol.

1%

↑ $4.75

$47,689 Vol.

1%

↑ $4.50

$42,952 Vol.

1%

↓ $3.95

$21,868 Vol.

1%

↓ $3.85

$18,854 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.75

$11,389 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.50

$4,799 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.25

$2,604 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.00

$7,266 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".US national average gasoline prices have surged to $4.30 per gallon as of April 30 per AAA data, the highest in four years, driven primarily by the ongoing Iran war that began in late February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil recently topped $125 per barrel amid fragile ceasefire talks and supply fears, compounded by US refinery outages and seasonal summer demand buildup. Prices climbed over 40% year-to-date, with weekly EIA reports showing consistent gains through April 27. Market resolution hinges on whether daily national averages from AAA or EIA met specified thresholds on any day by today; potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases or de-escalation could temper further rises, though volatility persists.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$498,574
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".US national average gasoline prices have surged to $4.30 per gallon as of April 30 per AAA data, the highest in four years, driven primarily by the ongoing Iran war that began in late February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil recently topped $125 per barrel amid fragile ceasefire talks and supply fears, compounded by US refinery outages and seasonal summer demand buildup. Prices climbed over 40% year-to-date, with weekly EIA reports showing consistent gains through April 27. Market resolution hinges on whether daily national averages from AAA or EIA met specified thresholds on any day by today; potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases or de-escalation could temper further rises, though volatility persists.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$498,574
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.25" at 100%, followed by "↑ $4.15" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" has generated $498.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of April?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is "↑ $4.25" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.15" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.