Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting nowcasts like NIESR's 0.3% QoQ estimate amid mixed monthly data—January's revised +0.1% followed by February's stronger-than-expected +0.5%, but tempered by softer March retail sales (+1.7% YoY vs. 2.0% consensus) and easing services PMI output. Sticky inflation near 3.3% has prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its April meeting, curbing momentum alongside Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. Higher bins like 0.9-1.2% (31%) capture upside risks from services resilience, with the preliminary ONS quarterly estimate due imminently as a key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0-0.3% 36%
0.3-0.6% 25.4%
0.9-1.2% 23.2%
1.2-1.5% 19.8%
$24,027 Vol.
$24,027 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
3%
0.0-0.3%
36%
0.3-0.6%
25%
0.6-0.9%
25%
0.9-1.2%
23%
1.2-1.5%
20%
1.5-1.8%
16%
1.8%+
3%
0.0-0.3% 36%
0.3-0.6% 25.4%
0.9-1.2% 23.2%
1.2-1.5% 19.8%
$24,027 Vol.
$24,027 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
$1,912 Vol.
3%
0.0-0.3%
$9,664 Vol.
36%
0.3-0.6%
$1,800 Vol.
25%
0.6-0.9%
$7,304 Vol.
25%
0.9-1.2%
$754 Vol.
23%
1.2-1.5%
$684 Vol.
20%
1.5-1.8%
$782 Vol.
16%
1.8%+
$1,126 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting nowcasts like NIESR's 0.3% QoQ estimate amid mixed monthly data—January's revised +0.1% followed by February's stronger-than-expected +0.5%, but tempered by softer March retail sales (+1.7% YoY vs. 2.0% consensus) and easing services PMI output. Sticky inflation near 3.3% has prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its April meeting, curbing momentum alongside Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. Higher bins like 0.9-1.2% (31%) capture upside risks from services resilience, with the preliminary ONS quarterly estimate due imminently as a key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$24,027End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting nowcasts like NIESR's 0.3% QoQ estimate amid mixed monthly data—January's revised +0.1% followed by February's stronger-than-expected +0.5%, but tempered by softer March retail sales (+1.7% YoY vs. 2.0% consensus) and easing services PMI output. Sticky inflation near 3.3% has prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its April meeting, curbing momentum alongside Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. Higher bins like 0.9-1.2% (31%) capture upside risks from services resilience, with the preliminary ONS quarterly estimate due imminently as a key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$24,027End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting nowcasts like NIESR's 0.3% QoQ estimate amid mixed monthly data—January's revised +0.1% followed by February's stronger-than-expected +0.5%, but tempered by softer March retail sales (+1.7% YoY vs. 2.0% consensus) and easing services PMI output. Sticky inflation near 3.3% has prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in its April meeting, curbing momentum alongside Middle East tensions elevating energy costs. Higher bins like 0.9-1.2% (31%) capture upside risks from services resilience, with the preliminary ONS quarterly estimate due imminently as a key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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