Recent Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment on UK 2026 GDP growth, pushing consensus forecasts from major institutions to 0.8-1.1 percent amid higher imported inflation and squeezed real incomes. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, supporting the upper end of the closely matched 0-1 percent and 1-2 percent market-implied odds at 42.0 percent and 41.1 percent respectively, while Bank of England policy restraint and sticky core inflation limit upside risks. Traders appear to price limited probability of outcomes above 3 percent given the transitory yet material headwinds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities backed by real capital at risk. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions will likely refine these assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0-1% 42%
4-5% 38.1%
3-4% 6.5%
<0 0
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
33%
0-1%
42%
1-2%
42%
2-3%
38%
3-4%
7%
4-5%
38%
5%+
35%
0-1% 42%
4-5% 38.1%
3-4% 6.5%
<0 0
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
33%
0-1%
$391 Vol.
42%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
42%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
38%
3-4%
$203 Vol.
7%
4-5%
$428 Vol.
38%
5%+
$252 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment on UK 2026 GDP growth, pushing consensus forecasts from major institutions to 0.8-1.1 percent amid higher imported inflation and squeezed real incomes. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, supporting the upper end of the closely matched 0-1 percent and 1-2 percent market-implied odds at 42.0 percent and 41.1 percent respectively, while Bank of England policy restraint and sticky core inflation limit upside risks. Traders appear to price limited probability of outcomes above 3 percent given the transitory yet material headwinds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities backed by real capital at risk. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions will likely refine these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$2,075End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment on UK 2026 GDP growth, pushing consensus forecasts from major institutions to 0.8-1.1 percent amid higher imported inflation and squeezed real incomes. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, supporting the upper end of the closely matched 0-1 percent and 1-2 percent market-implied odds at 42.0 percent and 41.1 percent respectively, while Bank of England policy restraint and sticky core inflation limit upside risks. Traders appear to price limited probability of outcomes above 3 percent given the transitory yet material headwinds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities backed by real capital at risk. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions will likely refine these assessments.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,075End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict and associated energy supply disruptions have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment on UK 2026 GDP growth, pushing consensus forecasts from major institutions to 0.8-1.1 percent amid higher imported inflation and squeezed real incomes. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, supporting the upper end of the closely matched 0-1 percent and 1-2 percent market-implied odds at 42.0 percent and 41.1 percent respectively, while Bank of England policy restraint and sticky core inflation limit upside risks. Traders appear to price limited probability of outcomes above 3 percent given the transitory yet material headwinds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities backed by real capital at risk. Key upcoming data releases on inflation and labor market conditions will likely refine these assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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