Incumbent Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary for Texas's 7th Congressional District, a southwestern Houston seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report despite 2025 GOP redistricting efforts that left her base largely intact. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats reflects Fletcher's fundraising edge, proven reelection record since 2018, and the district's urban-suburban demographics favoring Democrats, amplified by a fragmented Republican primary forcing a May 26 runoff between Alexander Hale and Tina Cohen with no clear frontrunner. A Republican upset would require the runoff winner to mount a massive fundraising surge, national midterm tailwinds, or a major Fletcher scandal before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-07 House Election Winner
TX-07 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,536 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$1,983 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary for Texas's 7th Congressional District, a southwestern Houston seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report despite 2025 GOP redistricting efforts that left her base largely intact. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats reflects Fletcher's fundraising edge, proven reelection record since 2018, and the district's urban-suburban demographics favoring Democrats, amplified by a fragmented Republican primary forcing a May 26 runoff between Alexander Hale and Tina Cohen with no clear frontrunner. A Republican upset would require the runoff winner to mount a massive fundraising surge, national midterm tailwinds, or a major Fletcher scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$6,519End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary for Texas's 7th Congressional District, a southwestern Houston seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report despite 2025 GOP redistricting efforts that left her base largely intact. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats reflects Fletcher's fundraising edge, proven reelection record since 2018, and the district's urban-suburban demographics favoring Democrats, amplified by a fragmented Republican primary forcing a May 26 runoff between Alexander Hale and Tina Cohen with no clear frontrunner. A Republican upset would require the runoff winner to mount a massive fundraising surge, national midterm tailwinds, or a major Fletcher scandal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,519End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary for Texas's 7th Congressional District, a southwestern Houston seat rated Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report despite 2025 GOP redistricting efforts that left her base largely intact. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats reflects Fletcher's fundraising edge, proven reelection record since 2018, and the district's urban-suburban demographics favoring Democrats, amplified by a fragmented Republican primary forcing a May 26 runoff between Alexander Hale and Tina Cohen with no clear frontrunner. A Republican upset would require the runoff winner to mount a massive fundraising surge, national midterm tailwinds, or a major Fletcher scandal before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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