**Traders assign an 87% probability against a Trump-Putin-Zelensky trilateral meeting before 2027** because sustained diplomatic efforts have produced only lower-level talks without advancing to a leaders' summit. Separate phone calls between the three leaders on June 14, 2026, focused on the Ukraine war and bilateral issues but yielded no agreement on a joint meeting. Earlier trilateral envoy sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January-February 2026 failed to break key impasses on territory and security guarantees, leaving negotiations on hold. Putin has conditioned direct engagement with Zelensky on Ukrainian concessions and has invited him to Moscow rather than a neutral venue, while U.S. priorities have shifted toward other files such as Iran. With six months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled pathway for a three-way summit, the market reflects limited near-term prospects for the specific outcome.