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World·Global Rates

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?

icon for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?
World·Global Rates

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?

May 5

Jun 16

May 5

Jun 16

Increase 90%

No Change 10%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$53,767 Vol.

Increase 90%

No Change 10%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$53,767 Vol.

Decrease

$14,233 Vol.

<1%

No Change

$12,848 Vol.

10%

Increase

$26,686 Vol.

90%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 90% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25 basis point cash rate hike at the May 5 meeting, with no change at 10% and a cut at 0.3%, driven primarily by the Australian Bureau of Statistics' March 2026 CPI release showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-over-year—up from 3.7% in February—fueled by a 1.4% quarterly jump and surging fuel costs from oil shocks. Trimmed mean inflation held sticky at elevated levels, while March unemployment remained steady at 4.3% amid solid employment growth, reinforcing hawkish sentiment following the RBA's March hike to 4.10%. Consensus among economists like Westpac and Citigroup now anticipates further tightening, with the federal budget on May 12 as a key watchpoint for fiscal influences.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$53,767
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 90% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25 basis point cash rate hike at the May 5 meeting, with no change at 10% and a cut at 0.3%, driven primarily by the Australian Bureau of Statistics' March 2026 CPI release showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.6% year-over-year—up from 3.7% in February—fueled by a 1.4% quarterly jump and surging fuel costs from oil shocks. Trimmed mean inflation held sticky at elevated levels, while March unemployment remained steady at 4.3% amid solid employment growth, reinforcing hawkish sentiment following the RBA's March hike to 4.10%. Consensus among economists like Westpac and Citigroup now anticipates further tightening, with the federal budget on May 12 as a key watchpoint for fiscal influences.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$53,767
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Increase" at 90%, followed by "No Change" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?" has generated $53.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?" is "Increase" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Change" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.