Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 amid inflation running above target and a solid labor market, with recent May employment data showing 172,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, and both market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool and economist forecasts now assign negligible odds of a cut, reflecting a broad committee view favoring a neutral stance over easing. This near-certain trader consensus on no cut at the outset stems from these data trends and institutional norms requiring FOMC majority support. A sharp deterioration in incoming inflation or employment figures before the meeting remains the primary realistic pathway that could reopen discussion, though such shifts appear limited given the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$443,071 Vol.
$443,071 Vol.
$443,071 Vol.
$443,071 Vol.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 amid inflation running above target and a solid labor market, with recent May employment data showing 172,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, and both market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool and economist forecasts now assign negligible odds of a cut, reflecting a broad committee view favoring a neutral stance over easing. This near-certain trader consensus on no cut at the outset stems from these data trends and institutional norms requiring FOMC majority support. A sharp deterioration in incoming inflation or employment figures before the meeting remains the primary realistic pathway that could reopen discussion, though such shifts appear limited given the current trajectory.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$443,071Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 amid inflation running above target and a solid labor market, with recent May employment data showing 172,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, and both market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool and economist forecasts now assign negligible odds of a cut, reflecting a broad committee view favoring a neutral stance over easing. This near-certain trader consensus on no cut at the outset stems from these data trends and institutional norms requiring FOMC majority support. A sharp deterioration in incoming inflation or employment figures before the meeting remains the primary realistic pathway that could reopen discussion, though such shifts appear limited given the current trajectory.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$443,071Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 amid inflation running above target and a solid labor market, with recent May employment data showing 172,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, and both market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool and economist forecasts now assign negligible odds of a cut, reflecting a broad committee view favoring a neutral stance over easing. This near-certain trader consensus on no cut at the outset stems from these data trends and institutional norms requiring FOMC majority support. A sharp deterioration in incoming inflation or employment figures before the meeting remains the primary realistic pathway that could reopen discussion, though such shifts appear limited given the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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