Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin Republican path to retaining Senate majority after the 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered around 49-51 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging four Senate flips—and President Trump's approval dipping to the low 40s on gas prices from Iran tensions. Recent April polls show Democrats leading in battlegrounds like North Carolina (Roy Cooper +6.5 average over RNC Chair Michael Whatley), Texas (Josh Talarico +7-8 versus Ken Paxton or John Cornyn), and Maine (challengers +5-9 against incumbent Susan Collins), bolstered by superior fundraising (e.g., Ossoff 7:1 in Georgia). GOP super PACs like Senate Leadership Fund are countering with record ad buys in eight races, but sustained Democratic momentum in Michigan's open seat or Ohio could push below 48, while economic rebounds or unified turnout might secure 51+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,144,942 Vol.
$2,144,942 Vol.
≤47
24%
48
12%
49
16%
50
19%
51
18%
52
7%
53
4%
54
1%
55
1%
56
1%
57+
2%
$2,144,942 Vol.
$2,144,942 Vol.
≤47
$66,692 Vol.
24%
48
$20,351 Vol.
12%
49
$15,270 Vol.
16%
50
$65,422 Vol.
19%
51
$164,886 Vol.
18%
52
$511,181 Vol.
7%
53
$16,957 Vol.
4%
54
$710,449 Vol.
1%
55
$394,980 Vol.
1%
56
$143,519 Vol.
1%
57+
$35,235 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin Republican path to retaining Senate majority after the 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered around 49-51 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging four Senate flips—and President Trump's approval dipping to the low 40s on gas prices from Iran tensions. Recent April polls show Democrats leading in battlegrounds like North Carolina (Roy Cooper +6.5 average over RNC Chair Michael Whatley), Texas (Josh Talarico +7-8 versus Ken Paxton or John Cornyn), and Maine (challengers +5-9 against incumbent Susan Collins), bolstered by superior fundraising (e.g., Ossoff 7:1 in Georgia). GOP super PACs like Senate Leadership Fund are countering with record ad buys in eight races, but sustained Democratic momentum in Michigan's open seat or Ohio could push below 48, while economic rebounds or unified turnout might secure 51+.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,144,942Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin Republican path to retaining Senate majority after the 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered around 49-51 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging four Senate flips—and President Trump's approval dipping to the low 40s on gas prices from Iran tensions. Recent April polls show Democrats leading in battlegrounds like North Carolina (Roy Cooper +6.5 average over RNC Chair Michael Whatley), Texas (Josh Talarico +7-8 versus Ken Paxton or John Cornyn), and Maine (challengers +5-9 against incumbent Susan Collins), bolstered by superior fundraising (e.g., Ossoff 7:1 in Georgia). GOP super PACs like Senate Leadership Fund are countering with record ad buys in eight races, but sustained Democratic momentum in Michigan's open seat or Ohio could push below 48, while economic rebounds or unified turnout might secure 51+.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,144,942Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin Republican path to retaining Senate majority after the 2026 midterms, with probabilities clustered around 49-51 seats amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging four Senate flips—and President Trump's approval dipping to the low 40s on gas prices from Iran tensions. Recent April polls show Democrats leading in battlegrounds like North Carolina (Roy Cooper +6.5 average over RNC Chair Michael Whatley), Texas (Josh Talarico +7-8 versus Ken Paxton or John Cornyn), and Maine (challengers +5-9 against incumbent Susan Collins), bolstered by superior fundraising (e.g., Ossoff 7:1 in Georgia). GOP super PACs like Senate Leadership Fund are countering with record ad buys in eight races, but sustained Democratic momentum in Michigan's open seat or Ohio could push below 48, while economic rebounds or unified turnout might secure 51+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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