Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled progress on early-year bipartisan bills like the Schiff-Curtis Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23 to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports contracts but lacking committee advancement or floor votes. Recent developments reinforce this: on April 30, the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution barring senators and staff from prediction market trading to curb insider risks, while Minnesota's Senate passed a state-level ban awaiting House action. Today's McCormick-Gillibrand Prediction Market Act of 2026 proposes user protections and official trading bans without prohibiting markets, aligning with CFTC's March regulatory advisories favoring oversight over outright prohibition. Year-end enactment faces slim odds absent major scandals or whipsaw shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
$10,238 Vol.
$10,238 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$10,238 Vol.
$10,238 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled progress on early-year bipartisan bills like the Schiff-Curtis Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23 to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports contracts but lacking committee advancement or floor votes. Recent developments reinforce this: on April 30, the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution barring senators and staff from prediction market trading to curb insider risks, while Minnesota's Senate passed a state-level ban awaiting House action. Today's McCormick-Gillibrand Prediction Market Act of 2026 proposes user protections and official trading bans without prohibiting markets, aligning with CFTC's March regulatory advisories favoring oversight over outright prohibition. Year-end enactment faces slim odds absent major scandals or whipsaw shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$10,238End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled progress on early-year bipartisan bills like the Schiff-Curtis Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23 to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports contracts but lacking committee advancement or floor votes. Recent developments reinforce this: on April 30, the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution barring senators and staff from prediction market trading to curb insider risks, while Minnesota's Senate passed a state-level ban awaiting House action. Today's McCormick-Gillibrand Prediction Market Act of 2026 proposes user protections and official trading bans without prohibiting markets, aligning with CFTC's March regulatory advisories favoring oversight over outright prohibition. Year-end enactment faces slim odds absent major scandals or whipsaw shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,238End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88.5% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled progress on early-year bipartisan bills like the Schiff-Curtis Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23 to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports contracts but lacking committee advancement or floor votes. Recent developments reinforce this: on April 30, the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution barring senators and staff from prediction market trading to curb insider risks, while Minnesota's Senate passed a state-level ban awaiting House action. Today's McCormick-Gillibrand Prediction Market Act of 2026 proposes user protections and official trading bans without prohibiting markets, aligning with CFTC's March regulatory advisories favoring oversight over outright prohibition. Year-end enactment faces slim odds absent major scandals or whipsaw shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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