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icon for Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?
Politics·Swalwell

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

icon for Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?
Politics·Swalwell

Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

27% chance
Polymarket

$27,188 Vol.

27% chance
Polymarket

$27,188 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,188
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick have resigned from the House since mid-April amid bipartisan ethics probes into misconduct allegations, preempting expulsion votes and leaving Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) as the last facing scrutiny. Traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, driven by Mills' public defiance—he denies sexual misconduct, stolen valor, and profiteering claims—and the constitutional 2/3 House vote threshold for expulsion, unlikely under slim GOP control despite Rep. Nancy Mace's April 20 resolution (H.Res.1193) and recent document submissions amplifying allegations. House Ethics Committee investigation persists without a floor vote scheduled, and no resignation signals emerged in the past week, anchoring trader consensus against all four departing by May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,188
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick all cease to be United States Representatives for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of a listed individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will be sufficient for that individual to be considered to have ceased to hold their position, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 27% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 27¢, the market collectively assigns a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" has generated $27.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" is 27% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.