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Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 78%

Melissa Hernandez 16%

Rakhi Israni Singh 11%

Carin Elam 5.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aisha Wahab 78%

Melissa Hernandez 16%

Rakhi Israni Singh 11%

Carin Elam 5.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aisha Wahab

$156 Vol.

78%

Melissa Hernandez

$54 Vol.

16%

Wendy Huang

$54 Vol.

6%

Carin Elam

$83 Vol.

6%

Matt Ortega

$59 Vol.

6%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$204 Vol.

11%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$53 Vol.

2%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 77.5% for the CA-14 special election winner following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid misconduct allegations, with a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 16 and general on August 18. Her edge reflects incumbency advantages, an 84% Alameda County Democratic Party endorsement last week, and a crowded Democratic field after national leaders' failed bid—backed by Hakeem Jeffries and Zoe Lofgren—to clear the primary for Bob Wieckowski, who declined. This fragmentation boosts her path to first place in the Democratic-leaning district, per models implying 60-72% odds. Carin Elam (16.2%), Melissa Hernandez (14.5%), and Rakhi Israni Singh (14.0%) vie for upset potential via vote splits, while Wendy Huang (13.2%) eyes the runoff spot.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$662
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 77.5% for the CA-14 special election winner following Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid misconduct allegations, with a top-two nonpartisan primary on June 16 and general on August 18. Her edge reflects incumbency advantages, an 84% Alameda County Democratic Party endorsement last week, and a crowded Democratic field after national leaders' failed bid—backed by Hakeem Jeffries and Zoe Lofgren—to clear the primary for Bob Wieckowski, who declined. This fragmentation boosts her path to first place in the Democratic-leaning district, per models implying 60-72% odds. Carin Elam (16.2%), Melissa Hernandez (14.5%), and Rakhi Israni Singh (14.0%) vie for upset potential via vote splits, while Wendy Huang (13.2%) eyes the runoff spot.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$662
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 78%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.