Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that Rep. Cory Mills remains in Congress past May 31, driven by his repeated public refusals to resign amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations, campaign finance issues, and military service claims. Rep. Nancy Mace's mid-April resolution seeking his expulsion has gained limited traction, as GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson has refrained from demanding his departure, unlike recent cases where Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick stepped down before ethics sanctions. Expulsion requires a two-thirds House vote—a steep hurdle in a slim majority—while primary challengers emerge but pose no immediate threat to his seat before the deadline. No further committee actions or votes are scheduled in the next month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAn announcement of Mills' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Mills' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cory Mills and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that Rep. Cory Mills remains in Congress past May 31, driven by his repeated public refusals to resign amid a House Ethics Committee probe into sexual misconduct allegations, campaign finance issues, and military service claims. Rep. Nancy Mace's mid-April resolution seeking his expulsion has gained limited traction, as GOP leadership including Speaker Mike Johnson has refrained from demanding his departure, unlike recent cases where Reps. Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick stepped down before ethics sanctions. Expulsion requires a two-thirds House vote—a steep hurdle in a slim majority—while primary challengers emerge but pose no immediate threat to his seat before the deadline. No further committee actions or votes are scheduled in the next month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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