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Politics·Senate

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

icon for Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Politics·Senate

Will Trump be impeached by June 30?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jan 20, 2029

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jan 20, 2029

2% chance
Polymarket

$318,605 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$318,605 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House, with a slim 217-212 majority in the 119th Congress, presents an insurmountable barrier to advancing impeachment articles against President Trump, requiring a simple majority vote to pass. Recent Democratic efforts, including Rep. John Larson's H.Res. 1155 filed April 6 citing Iran war threats and additional cosponsors like Rep. Steve Cohen, have gained no traction amid party leadership shutting down escalation talks by mid-April. With under 60 days until June 30 resolution, no committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled. Trader consensus at 97.8% "No" reflects these institutional realities and historical precedent of failed opposition pushes; only extraordinary GOP defections from a major scandal or legal ruling could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$318,605
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House, with a slim 217-212 majority in the 119th Congress, presents an insurmountable barrier to advancing impeachment articles against President Trump, requiring a simple majority vote to pass. Recent Democratic efforts, including Rep. John Larson's H.Res. 1155 filed April 6 citing Iran war threats and additional cosponsors like Rep. Steve Cohen, have gained no traction amid party leadership shutting down escalation talks by mid-April. With under 60 days until June 30 resolution, no committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled. Trader consensus at 97.8% "No" reflects these institutional realities and historical precedent of failed opposition pushes; only extraordinary GOP defections from a major scandal or legal ruling could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$318,605
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump be impeached by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump be impeached by June 30?" has generated $318.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump be impeached by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump be impeached by June 30?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump be impeached by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.