As of mid-June 2026, roughly 22–24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the closely matched 20–23 and 32–35 market bins. Trader consensus remains tight because the cycle is still early, with state filing deadlines and primary seasons ahead that typically prompt additional departures driven by redistricting effects, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and institutional frustrations. Recent trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery show steady but not accelerated Democratic announcements compared with higher Republican turnover. Further retirements by senior members, shifts in the political environment under the current administration, or late decisions on higher-office bids could push totals into higher ranges, while fewer new announcements would favor lower bins. Historical mid-cycle patterns suggest outcomes remain fluid until fall deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado24–27 19%
28–31 10%
40 o más 6.1%
<20 3.7%
$33,707 Vol.
$33,707 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
4%
20–23
15%
24–27
19%
28–31
16%
32–35
31%
36–39
12%
40 o más
26%
24–27 19%
28–31 10%
40 o más 6.1%
<20 3.7%
$33,707 Vol.
$33,707 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
$17,178 Vol.
4%
20–23
$5,494 Vol.
15%
24–27
$4,265 Vol.
19%
28–31
$1,214 Vol.
16%
32–35
$3,797 Vol.
31%
36–39
$821 Vol.
12%
40 o más
$938 Vol.
26%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, roughly 22–24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the closely matched 20–23 and 32–35 market bins. Trader consensus remains tight because the cycle is still early, with state filing deadlines and primary seasons ahead that typically prompt additional departures driven by redistricting effects, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and institutional frustrations. Recent trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery show steady but not accelerated Democratic announcements compared with higher Republican turnover. Further retirements by senior members, shifts in the political environment under the current administration, or late decisions on higher-office bids could push totals into higher ranges, while fewer new announcements would favor lower bins. Historical mid-cycle patterns suggest outcomes remain fluid until fall deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$33,707Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, roughly 22–24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the closely matched 20–23 and 32–35 market bins. Trader consensus remains tight because the cycle is still early, with state filing deadlines and primary seasons ahead that typically prompt additional departures driven by redistricting effects, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and institutional frustrations. Recent trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery show steady but not accelerated Democratic announcements compared with higher Republican turnover. Further retirements by senior members, shifts in the political environment under the current administration, or late decisions on higher-office bids could push totals into higher ranges, while fewer new announcements would favor lower bins. Historical mid-cycle patterns suggest outcomes remain fluid until fall deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$33,707Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-June 2026, roughly 22–24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the closely matched 20–23 and 32–35 market bins. Trader consensus remains tight because the cycle is still early, with state filing deadlines and primary seasons ahead that typically prompt additional departures driven by redistricting effects, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and institutional frustrations. Recent trackers from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery show steady but not accelerated Democratic announcements compared with higher Republican turnover. Further retirements by senior members, shifts in the political environment under the current administration, or late decisions on higher-office bids could push totals into higher ranges, while fewer new announcements would favor lower bins. Historical mid-cycle patterns suggest outcomes remain fluid until fall deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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