Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, with 29% implied probability, as 20 have already announced plans to retire or pursue other offices as of late April amid a record retirement wave. This positioning stems from a surge of departures among senior Democrats—such as Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—driven by institutional frustrations, calls for generational turnover, and midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party in a GOP-controlled House. No new announcements in the past month have slowed momentum, keeping outcomes like 20–23 (16.4%) and 28–31 (21%) competitive; further separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts bailing ahead of filing deadlines or primary challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated24–27 29%
28–31 21%
20–23 16.4%
32–35 13.0%
$31,451 Vol.
$31,451 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
16%
24–27
29%
28–31
21%
32–35
13%
36–39
4%
40+
10%
24–27 29%
28–31 21%
20–23 16.4%
32–35 13.0%
$31,451 Vol.
$31,451 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
2%
20–23
$5,230 Vol.
16%
24–27
$4,226 Vol.
29%
28–31
$1,164 Vol.
21%
32–35
$3,353 Vol.
13%
36–39
$487 Vol.
4%
40+
$0 Vol.
10%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, with 29% implied probability, as 20 have already announced plans to retire or pursue other offices as of late April amid a record retirement wave. This positioning stems from a surge of departures among senior Democrats—such as Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—driven by institutional frustrations, calls for generational turnover, and midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party in a GOP-controlled House. No new announcements in the past month have slowed momentum, keeping outcomes like 20–23 (16.4%) and 28–31 (21%) competitive; further separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts bailing ahead of filing deadlines or primary challenges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,451End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, with 29% implied probability, as 20 have already announced plans to retire or pursue other offices as of late April amid a record retirement wave. This positioning stems from a surge of departures among senior Democrats—such as Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—driven by institutional frustrations, calls for generational turnover, and midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party in a GOP-controlled House. No new announcements in the past month have slowed momentum, keeping outcomes like 20–23 (16.4%) and 28–31 (21%) competitive; further separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts bailing ahead of filing deadlines or primary challenges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,451End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, with 29% implied probability, as 20 have already announced plans to retire or pursue other offices as of late April amid a record retirement wave. This positioning stems from a surge of departures among senior Democrats—such as Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, and Jerrold Nadler—driven by institutional frustrations, calls for generational turnover, and midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party in a GOP-controlled House. No new announcements in the past month have slowed momentum, keeping outcomes like 20–23 (16.4%) and 28–31 (21%) competitive; further separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts bailing ahead of filing deadlines or primary challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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