Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout remains tightly contested, with probabilities clustered around high scenarios exceeding 130 million votes at 22.5% and unusually low levels below 85 million at 21.8%, reflecting uncertainty over voter enthusiasm six months from Election Day on November 3. Recent primary elections in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois showed modest turnout trends similar to 2022's 111 million House popular vote total, tempering expectations for a surge, while generic ballot polling averages—such as YouGov/Economist surveys in late April showing Democrats up 2 points among registered voters—hint at stronger motivation among opposition-leaning blocs in battlegrounds. Factors like President Trump's steady but polarized approval ratings around 43%, ongoing redistricting disputes, and economic conditions could boost participation via early voting and absentee ballots, or foster apathy if legislative gridlock persists; upcoming summer primaries and generic ballot shifts may tip the balance toward separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated125-130m 21%
<85m 20.0%
115-120m 17%
130m+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
21%
85-90m
6%
90-95m
<1%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
4%
105-110m
4%
110-115m
14%
115-120m
17%
120-125m
12%
125-130m
21%
130m+
21%
125-130m 21%
<85m 20.0%
115-120m 17%
130m+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
$319 Vol.
21%
85-90m
$419 Vol.
6%
90-95m
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
95-100m
$269 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$782 Vol.
4%
105-110m
$431 Vol.
4%
110-115m
$504 Vol.
14%
115-120m
$1,020 Vol.
17%
120-125m
$371 Vol.
12%
125-130m
$1,194 Vol.
21%
130m+
$255 Vol.
21%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout remains tightly contested, with probabilities clustered around high scenarios exceeding 130 million votes at 22.5% and unusually low levels below 85 million at 21.8%, reflecting uncertainty over voter enthusiasm six months from Election Day on November 3. Recent primary elections in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois showed modest turnout trends similar to 2022's 111 million House popular vote total, tempering expectations for a surge, while generic ballot polling averages—such as YouGov/Economist surveys in late April showing Democrats up 2 points among registered voters—hint at stronger motivation among opposition-leaning blocs in battlegrounds. Factors like President Trump's steady but polarized approval ratings around 43%, ongoing redistricting disputes, and economic conditions could boost participation via early voting and absentee ballots, or foster apathy if legislative gridlock persists; upcoming summer primaries and generic ballot shifts may tip the balance toward separation.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$6,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout remains tightly contested, with probabilities clustered around high scenarios exceeding 130 million votes at 22.5% and unusually low levels below 85 million at 21.8%, reflecting uncertainty over voter enthusiasm six months from Election Day on November 3. Recent primary elections in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois showed modest turnout trends similar to 2022's 111 million House popular vote total, tempering expectations for a surge, while generic ballot polling averages—such as YouGov/Economist surveys in late April showing Democrats up 2 points among registered voters—hint at stronger motivation among opposition-leaning blocs in battlegrounds. Factors like President Trump's steady but polarized approval ratings around 43%, ongoing redistricting disputes, and economic conditions could boost participation via early voting and absentee ballots, or foster apathy if legislative gridlock persists; upcoming summer primaries and generic ballot shifts may tip the balance toward separation.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$6,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout remains tightly contested, with probabilities clustered around high scenarios exceeding 130 million votes at 22.5% and unusually low levels below 85 million at 21.8%, reflecting uncertainty over voter enthusiasm six months from Election Day on November 3. Recent primary elections in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois showed modest turnout trends similar to 2022's 111 million House popular vote total, tempering expectations for a surge, while generic ballot polling averages—such as YouGov/Economist surveys in late April showing Democrats up 2 points among registered voters—hint at stronger motivation among opposition-leaning blocs in battlegrounds. Factors like President Trump's steady but polarized approval ratings around 43%, ongoing redistricting disputes, and economic conditions could boost participation via early voting and absentee ballots, or foster apathy if legislative gridlock persists; upcoming summer primaries and generic ballot shifts may tip the balance toward separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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