Former Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) resigned from Congress in mid-April 2026 amid a House Ethics Committee investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, including an admitted affair with a former staffer who died by suicide. His departure on April 20 effectively ended the ethics probe, with no referrals to the Department of Justice or state prosecutors announced. Absent any ongoing federal or state criminal investigations—despite earlier scrutiny from the Office of Congressional Conduct—traders price a 71% implied probability on "No" charges by June 30, reflecting consensus that the matter remains confined to congressional standards rather than criminal jurisdiction. No scheduled hearings or legal deadlines loom to alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFor the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Former Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) resigned from Congress in mid-April 2026 amid a House Ethics Committee investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, including an admitted affair with a former staffer who died by suicide. His departure on April 20 effectively ended the ethics probe, with no referrals to the Department of Justice or state prosecutors announced. Absent any ongoing federal or state criminal investigations—despite earlier scrutiny from the Office of Congressional Conduct—traders price a 71% implied probability on "No" charges by June 30, reflecting consensus that the matter remains confined to congressional standards rather than criminal jurisdiction. No scheduled hearings or legal deadlines loom to alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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