Keiko Fujimori holds a narrow lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with official tallies showing her at roughly 50.05 percent to his 49.95 percent after more than 98 percent of ballots are counted. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a final margin inside the 0.2–0.3 percent bracket because remaining overseas votes, rural precincts, and several thousand contested ballots have historically favored her Popular Force party while urban areas continue to back Sánchez. The razor-thin gap aligns with Peru’s recent pattern of sub-1 percent presidential runoffs and the absence of decisive swings in uncounted districts. ONPE’s ongoing review of disputed stations and any appeals could still shift the exact bracket, though current vote distributions point to resolution near the observed 18,000-vote spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 93.8%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4% 3.8%
Fujimori 0.1–0.2% 1.3%
Fujimori 0.4–0.5% <1%
$1,919,886 Vol.
$1,919,886 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
<1%
Fujimori 0.9–1.0%
<1%
Fujimori 0.8–0.9%
<1%
Fujimori 0.7–0.8%
<1%
Fujimori 0.6–0.7%
<1%
Fujimori 0.5–0.6%
<1%
Fujimori 0.4–0.5%
<1%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4%
4%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%
94%
Fujimori 0.1–0.2%
1%
Fujimori 0–0.1%
<1%
Sánchez 0–0.1%
<1%
Sánchez 0.1–0.2%
<1%
Sánchez 0.2–0.3%
<1%
Sánchez 0.3–0.4%
<1%
Sánchez 0.4–0.5%
<1%
Sánchez 0.5–0.6%
<1%
Sánchez 0.6–0.7%
<1%
Sánchez 0.7–0.8%
<1%
Sánchez 0.8–0.9%
<1%
Sánchez 0.9–1.0%
<1%
Sánchez 1%+
<1%
Other
<1%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 93.8%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4% 3.8%
Fujimori 0.1–0.2% 1.3%
Fujimori 0.4–0.5% <1%
$1,919,886 Vol.
$1,919,886 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
$62,672 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.9–1.0%
$34,568 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.8–0.9%
$32,509 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.7–0.8%
$31,751 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.6–0.7%
$41,044 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.5–0.6%
$81,985 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.4–0.5%
$178,765 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4%
$271,625 Vol.
4%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%
$150,311 Vol.
94%
Fujimori 0.1–0.2%
$228,908 Vol.
1%
Fujimori 0–0.1%
$241,438 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0–0.1%
$178,470 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.1–0.2%
$135,443 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.2–0.3%
$52,086 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.3–0.4%
$37,198 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.4–0.5%
$35,140 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.5–0.6%
$29,110 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.6–0.7%
$23,146 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.7–0.8%
$16,485 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.8–0.9%
$9,706 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.9–1.0%
$8,727 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 1%+
$9,872 Vol.
<1%
Other
$29,343 Vol.
<1%
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori holds a narrow lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with official tallies showing her at roughly 50.05 percent to his 49.95 percent after more than 98 percent of ballots are counted. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a final margin inside the 0.2–0.3 percent bracket because remaining overseas votes, rural precincts, and several thousand contested ballots have historically favored her Popular Force party while urban areas continue to back Sánchez. The razor-thin gap aligns with Peru’s recent pattern of sub-1 percent presidential runoffs and the absence of decisive swings in uncounted districts. ONPE’s ongoing review of disputed stations and any appeals could still shift the exact bracket, though current vote distributions point to resolution near the observed 18,000-vote spread.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,919,886Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori holds a narrow lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with official tallies showing her at roughly 50.05 percent to his 49.95 percent after more than 98 percent of ballots are counted. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a final margin inside the 0.2–0.3 percent bracket because remaining overseas votes, rural precincts, and several thousand contested ballots have historically favored her Popular Force party while urban areas continue to back Sánchez. The razor-thin gap aligns with Peru’s recent pattern of sub-1 percent presidential runoffs and the absence of decisive swings in uncounted districts. ONPE’s ongoing review of disputed stations and any appeals could still shift the exact bracket, though current vote distributions point to resolution near the observed 18,000-vote spread.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$1,919,886Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori holds a narrow lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru’s June 7 runoff, with official tallies showing her at roughly 50.05 percent to his 49.95 percent after more than 98 percent of ballots are counted. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a final margin inside the 0.2–0.3 percent bracket because remaining overseas votes, rural precincts, and several thousand contested ballots have historically favored her Popular Force party while urban areas continue to back Sánchez. The razor-thin gap aligns with Peru’s recent pattern of sub-1 percent presidential runoffs and the absence of decisive swings in uncounted districts. ONPE’s ongoing review of disputed stations and any appeals could still shift the exact bracket, though current vote distributions point to resolution near the observed 18,000-vote spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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