Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation with razor-thin margins, implied odds favoring below 2.50% at 44.5% cents amid modest headline disinflation to 4.53% year-over-year in early April—easing from March's 4.59% peak—driven by cooling core pressures at 4.27%. This supports bets on aggressive convergence to Banco de México's 3% target (±1%) via ongoing monetary easing, as Banxico cut its benchmark 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 despite food price shocks from insecurity and global tensions. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like full April CPI (due early May), fiscal spending impulses, and May 30 policy signals, with analyst medians around 4.2% end-year tempering sub-3% hopes while higher buckets reflect persistent volatility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50% to 4.99% 19%
5.50%+ 12%
2.50% to 2.99% 5.9%
<2.50% 0
$34,880 Vol.
$34,880 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
44%
2.50% to 2.99%
6%
3.00% to 3.49%
41%
3.50% to 3.99%
41%
4.00% to 4.49%
35%
4.50% to 4.99%
32%
5.00% to 5.49%
40%
5.50%+
32%
4.50% to 4.99% 19%
5.50%+ 12%
2.50% to 2.99% 5.9%
<2.50% 0
$34,880 Vol.
$34,880 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
44%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Vol.
6%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,671 Vol.
41%
3.50% to 3.99%
$348 Vol.
41%
4.00% to 4.49%
$403 Vol.
35%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,084 Vol.
32%
5.00% to 5.49%
$401 Vol.
40%
5.50%+
$4,972 Vol.
32%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation with razor-thin margins, implied odds favoring below 2.50% at 44.5% cents amid modest headline disinflation to 4.53% year-over-year in early April—easing from March's 4.59% peak—driven by cooling core pressures at 4.27%. This supports bets on aggressive convergence to Banco de México's 3% target (±1%) via ongoing monetary easing, as Banxico cut its benchmark 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 despite food price shocks from insecurity and global tensions. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like full April CPI (due early May), fiscal spending impulses, and May 30 policy signals, with analyst medians around 4.2% end-year tempering sub-3% hopes while higher buckets reflect persistent volatility risks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$34,880End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation with razor-thin margins, implied odds favoring below 2.50% at 44.5% cents amid modest headline disinflation to 4.53% year-over-year in early April—easing from March's 4.59% peak—driven by cooling core pressures at 4.27%. This supports bets on aggressive convergence to Banco de México's 3% target (±1%) via ongoing monetary easing, as Banxico cut its benchmark 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 despite food price shocks from insecurity and global tensions. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like full April CPI (due early May), fiscal spending impulses, and May 30 policy signals, with analyst medians around 4.2% end-year tempering sub-3% hopes while higher buckets reflect persistent volatility risks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$34,880End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation with razor-thin margins, implied odds favoring below 2.50% at 44.5% cents amid modest headline disinflation to 4.53% year-over-year in early April—easing from March's 4.59% peak—driven by cooling core pressures at 4.27%. This supports bets on aggressive convergence to Banco de México's 3% target (±1%) via ongoing monetary easing, as Banxico cut its benchmark 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 despite food price shocks from insecurity and global tensions. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like full April CPI (due early May), fiscal spending impulses, and May 30 policy signals, with analyst medians around 4.2% end-year tempering sub-3% hopes while higher buckets reflect persistent volatility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions