Polymarket traders are closely split on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 40% implied probability on 0.6–1.0% and 36.5% on 1.1–1.5%, reflecting National Bureau of Statistics data showing March CPI at 1.0% year-over-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below 1.2% consensus forecasts—amid weak consumer demand and property sector drags. January–March averaged 0.9%, aligning with economist estimates like Nomura's 0.6%, JPMorgan's 0.8%, and BofA's 1.0%, far under the government's ~2% target. Key swing factors include April CPI due May 10, potential PBOC stimulus effects on demand, and global commodity pressures; sustained sub-1% prints could solidify the lower bin, while rebounding food prices might favor the upper range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 38%
1.1 – 1.5% 32%
2.5%+ 6.3%
1.6 – 2.0% 6.2%
$37,710 Vol.
$37,710 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
22%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
38%
1.1 – 1.5%
32%
1.6 – 2.0%
6%
2.0-2.4%
5%
2.5%+
6%
0.6 – 1.0% 38%
1.1 – 1.5% 32%
2.5%+ 6.3%
1.6 – 2.0% 6.2%
$37,710 Vol.
$37,710 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$17,286 Vol.
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$2,156 Vol.
22%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$2,314 Vol.
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,259 Vol.
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,728 Vol.
38%
1.1 – 1.5%
$3,145 Vol.
32%
1.6 – 2.0%
$3,319 Vol.
6%
2.0-2.4%
$2,231 Vol.
5%
2.5%+
$2,272 Vol.
6%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders are closely split on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 40% implied probability on 0.6–1.0% and 36.5% on 1.1–1.5%, reflecting National Bureau of Statistics data showing March CPI at 1.0% year-over-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below 1.2% consensus forecasts—amid weak consumer demand and property sector drags. January–March averaged 0.9%, aligning with economist estimates like Nomura's 0.6%, JPMorgan's 0.8%, and BofA's 1.0%, far under the government's ~2% target. Key swing factors include April CPI due May 10, potential PBOC stimulus effects on demand, and global commodity pressures; sustained sub-1% prints could solidify the lower bin, while rebounding food prices might favor the upper range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$37,710End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders are closely split on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 40% implied probability on 0.6–1.0% and 36.5% on 1.1–1.5%, reflecting National Bureau of Statistics data showing March CPI at 1.0% year-over-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below 1.2% consensus forecasts—amid weak consumer demand and property sector drags. January–March averaged 0.9%, aligning with economist estimates like Nomura's 0.6%, JPMorgan's 0.8%, and BofA's 1.0%, far under the government's ~2% target. Key swing factors include April CPI due May 10, potential PBOC stimulus effects on demand, and global commodity pressures; sustained sub-1% prints could solidify the lower bin, while rebounding food prices might favor the upper range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$37,710End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are closely split on China 2026 annual CPI inflation, with 40% implied probability on 0.6–1.0% and 36.5% on 1.1–1.5%, reflecting National Bureau of Statistics data showing March CPI at 1.0% year-over-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below 1.2% consensus forecasts—amid weak consumer demand and property sector drags. January–March averaged 0.9%, aligning with economist estimates like Nomura's 0.6%, JPMorgan's 0.8%, and BofA's 1.0%, far under the government's ~2% target. Key swing factors include April CPI due May 10, potential PBOC stimulus effects on demand, and global commodity pressures; sustained sub-1% prints could solidify the lower bin, while rebounding food prices might favor the upper range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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