Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band at 41.9%, narrowly ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 33.1%, reflecting heightened uncertainty after March's IPCA surged 0.88% monthly to 4.14% year-over-year—the highest March since 2022—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes and food pressures. April's IPCA-15 accelerated further to 0.89% monthly and 4.37% annually, prompting Focus survey revisions to 4.7-4.8% end-2026 expectations, above the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.50% signals ongoing easing but cautious forward guidance amid oil risks from Iran tensions and fiscal concerns, with the tight race hinging on April full IPCA and May policy data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 43.5%
4.50-4.99% 23.6%
6.00-6.49% 15.3%
7.00%+ 12.5%
$56,696 Vol.
$56,696 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
2%
3.00-3.49%
12%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
7%
4.50-4.99%
24%
5.00-5.49%
44%
5.50-5.99%
11%
6.00-6.49%
15%
6.50-6.99%
6%
7.00%+
11%
5.00-5.49% 43.5%
4.50-4.99% 23.6%
6.00-6.49% 15.3%
7.00%+ 12.5%
$56,696 Vol.
$56,696 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$4,374 Vol.
2%
3.00-3.49%
$4,370 Vol.
12%
3.50-3.99%
$8,921 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$7,929 Vol.
7%
4.50-4.99%
$6,770 Vol.
24%
5.00-5.49%
$5,860 Vol.
44%
5.50-5.99%
$5,598 Vol.
11%
6.00-6.49%
$4,653 Vol.
15%
6.50-6.99%
$4,853 Vol.
6%
7.00%+
$3,368 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band at 41.9%, narrowly ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 33.1%, reflecting heightened uncertainty after March's IPCA surged 0.88% monthly to 4.14% year-over-year—the highest March since 2022—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes and food pressures. April's IPCA-15 accelerated further to 0.89% monthly and 4.37% annually, prompting Focus survey revisions to 4.7-4.8% end-2026 expectations, above the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.50% signals ongoing easing but cautious forward guidance amid oil risks from Iran tensions and fiscal concerns, with the tight race hinging on April full IPCA and May policy data.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$56,696End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band at 41.9%, narrowly ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 33.1%, reflecting heightened uncertainty after March's IPCA surged 0.88% monthly to 4.14% year-over-year—the highest March since 2022—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes and food pressures. April's IPCA-15 accelerated further to 0.89% monthly and 4.37% annually, prompting Focus survey revisions to 4.7-4.8% end-2026 expectations, above the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.50% signals ongoing easing but cautious forward guidance amid oil risks from Iran tensions and fiscal concerns, with the tight race hinging on April full IPCA and May policy data.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$56,696End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the 5.00-5.49% band at 41.9%, narrowly ahead of 4.50-4.99% at 33.1%, reflecting heightened uncertainty after March's IPCA surged 0.88% monthly to 4.14% year-over-year—the highest March since 2022—driven by 4.59% gasoline spikes and food pressures. April's IPCA-15 accelerated further to 0.89% monthly and 4.37% annually, prompting Focus survey revisions to 4.7-4.8% end-2026 expectations, above the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom's April 29 unanimous 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.50% signals ongoing easing but cautious forward guidance amid oil risks from Iran tensions and fiscal concerns, with the tight race hinging on April full IPCA and May policy data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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