Brazil’s 2026 IPCA expectations have climbed steadily through mid-year, with the Focus survey median reaching 5.04% by late May amid May headline inflation of 4.72% YoY—the highest reading since September 2025. Upward pressure stems from food and administered prices, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and persistent services inflation amid resilient labor demand and wage growth. The central bank’s easing cycle, with the Selic at 14.5% after two 25-basis-point cuts, continues despite de-anchored expectations well above the 3% target. Copom’s June 16-17 decision and incoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts, leaving the 5.00-5.99% band narrowly contested as traders weigh fiscal dynamics against potential further monetary restraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 25.9%
5.50-5.99% 25.8%
6.00-6.49% 14.0%
7.00%+ 8.5%
$65,304 Vol.
$65,304 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
3%
4.00-4.49%
3%
4.50-4.99%
7%
5.00-5.49%
26%
5.50-5.99%
26%
6.00-6.49%
14%
6.50-6.99%
8%
7.00%+
9%
5.00-5.49% 25.9%
5.50-5.99% 25.8%
6.00-6.49% 14.0%
7.00%+ 8.5%
$65,304 Vol.
$65,304 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$4,644 Vol.
1%
3.00-3.49%
$4,436 Vol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$11,770 Vol.
3%
4.00-4.49%
$8,746 Vol.
3%
4.50-4.99%
$8,474 Vol.
7%
5.00-5.49%
$7,053 Vol.
26%
5.50-5.99%
$5,949 Vol.
26%
6.00-6.49%
$5,051 Vol.
14%
6.50-6.99%
$5,366 Vol.
8%
7.00%+
$3,815 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s 2026 IPCA expectations have climbed steadily through mid-year, with the Focus survey median reaching 5.04% by late May amid May headline inflation of 4.72% YoY—the highest reading since September 2025. Upward pressure stems from food and administered prices, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and persistent services inflation amid resilient labor demand and wage growth. The central bank’s easing cycle, with the Selic at 14.5% after two 25-basis-point cuts, continues despite de-anchored expectations well above the 3% target. Copom’s June 16-17 decision and incoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts, leaving the 5.00-5.99% band narrowly contested as traders weigh fiscal dynamics against potential further monetary restraint.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$65,304End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s 2026 IPCA expectations have climbed steadily through mid-year, with the Focus survey median reaching 5.04% by late May amid May headline inflation of 4.72% YoY—the highest reading since September 2025. Upward pressure stems from food and administered prices, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and persistent services inflation amid resilient labor demand and wage growth. The central bank’s easing cycle, with the Selic at 14.5% after two 25-basis-point cuts, continues despite de-anchored expectations well above the 3% target. Copom’s June 16-17 decision and incoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts, leaving the 5.00-5.99% band narrowly contested as traders weigh fiscal dynamics against potential further monetary restraint.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$65,304End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil’s 2026 IPCA expectations have climbed steadily through mid-year, with the Focus survey median reaching 5.04% by late May amid May headline inflation of 4.72% YoY—the highest reading since September 2025. Upward pressure stems from food and administered prices, elevated energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, and persistent services inflation amid resilient labor demand and wage growth. The central bank’s easing cycle, with the Selic at 14.5% after two 25-basis-point cuts, continues despite de-anchored expectations well above the 3% target. Copom’s June 16-17 decision and incoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts, leaving the 5.00-5.99% band narrowly contested as traders weigh fiscal dynamics against potential further monetary restraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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