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icon for Major solar storm by April 30?

Major solar storm by April 30?

icon for Major solar storm by April 30?

Major solar storm by April 30?

1% chance
Polymarket

$13,500 Vol.

1% chance
Polymarket

$13,500 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.6% for no major solar storm—defined as G4 (Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) geomagnetic disturbance—by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center observations showing planetary Kp index peaking at only 5 (G1 minor) amid coronal hole high-speed solar wind effects late on April 30. Absent Earth-directed coronal mass ejections from recent M- and X-class flares earlier in April, geomagnetic activity stayed well below severe thresholds throughout the month, consistent with Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. While preliminary data could see minor revisions, no realistic scenarios like undetected CME impacts remain viable post-deadline, solidifying the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$13,500
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.6% for no major solar storm—defined as G4 (Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) geomagnetic disturbance—by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center observations showing planetary Kp index peaking at only 5 (G1 minor) amid coronal hole high-speed solar wind effects late on April 30. Absent Earth-directed coronal mass ejections from recent M- and X-class flares earlier in April, geomagnetic activity stayed well below severe thresholds throughout the month, consistent with Solar Cycle 25's post-peak decline. While preliminary data could see minor revisions, no realistic scenarios like undetected CME impacts remain viable post-deadline, solidifying the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$13,500
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Major solar storm by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Major solar storm by April 30?" has generated $13.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Major solar storm by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Major solar storm by April 30?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Major solar storm by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.