Current weather model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns points to a Shanghai minimum near 22°C on June 15, aligning with the market's 91% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-June climatology in the region shows typical overnight lows of 20–23°C during the transition from early-summer humidity to peak heat, supported by recent observational trends of stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling. Short-range ensemble forecasts reinforce this range, with minimal spread expected absent rapid changes in cloud cover or advection. A stronger-than-anticipated cold front or heavier rainfall could still push readings to 20–21°C, though such shifts remain low-probability based on the latest guidance. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide the key test of this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 15?
22°C 96%
21°C 6.3%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
NEW
$25,169 Vol.
NEW
$25,169 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
96%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 96%
21°C 6.3%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
NEW
$25,169 Vol.
NEW
$25,169 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
17°C or below
$527 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$716 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,799 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,567 Vol.
1%
21°C
$555 Vol.
6%
22°C
$1,107 Vol.
96%
23°C
$12,779 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,205 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$715 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$783 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns points to a Shanghai minimum near 22°C on June 15, aligning with the market's 91% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-June climatology in the region shows typical overnight lows of 20–23°C during the transition from early-summer humidity to peak heat, supported by recent observational trends of stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling. Short-range ensemble forecasts reinforce this range, with minimal spread expected absent rapid changes in cloud cover or advection. A stronger-than-anticipated cold front or heavier rainfall could still push readings to 20–21°C, though such shifts remain low-probability based on the latest guidance. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide the key test of this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$25,169End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current weather model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns points to a Shanghai minimum near 22°C on June 15, aligning with the market's 91% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-June climatology in the region shows typical overnight lows of 20–23°C during the transition from early-summer humidity to peak heat, supported by recent observational trends of stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling. Short-range ensemble forecasts reinforce this range, with minimal spread expected absent rapid changes in cloud cover or advection. A stronger-than-anticipated cold front or heavier rainfall could still push readings to 20–21°C, though such shifts remain low-probability based on the latest guidance. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide the key test of this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,169End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current weather model consensus from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon patterns points to a Shanghai minimum near 22°C on June 15, aligning with the market's 91% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-June climatology in the region shows typical overnight lows of 20–23°C during the transition from early-summer humidity to peak heat, supported by recent observational trends of stable subtropical high pressure and limited nocturnal cooling. Short-range ensemble forecasts reinforce this range, with minimal spread expected absent rapid changes in cloud cover or advection. A stronger-than-anticipated cold front or heavier rainfall could still push readings to 20–21°C, though such shifts remain low-probability based on the latest guidance. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide the key test of this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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