**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on June 15, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** This positioning rests on short-range forecast guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and major models, which consistently project morning lows of 18–20°C under partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions with light winds and no strong cold-air advection. Mid-June climatology supports this range, with historical average overnight lows near 19–21°C as the East Asian summer monsoon begins to influence humidity without yet delivering widespread cooling. Recent model runs show stable steering patterns and minimal diurnal temperature swings, keeping the overnight minimum firmly in the upper teens Celsius. The market’s tight clustering around 19°C reflects traders’ assessment of verified observational data and ensemble agreement, with only marginal probability assigned to deviations. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted nocturnal radiative cooling event under clearer skies or a localized station measurement anomaly at the official KMA site, though current conditions make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 15?
19°C 97.9%
18°C 1.0%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
NEW
$12,058 Vol.
NEW
$12,058 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
98%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 97.9%
18°C 1.0%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
NEW
$12,058 Vol.
NEW
$12,058 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
$834 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$790 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,073 Vol.
1%
16°C
$407 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$555 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,510 Vol.
1%
19°C
$2,416 Vol.
98%
20°C
$1,147 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$711 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$781 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,909 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on June 15, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** This positioning rests on short-range forecast guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and major models, which consistently project morning lows of 18–20°C under partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions with light winds and no strong cold-air advection. Mid-June climatology supports this range, with historical average overnight lows near 19–21°C as the East Asian summer monsoon begins to influence humidity without yet delivering widespread cooling.
Recent model runs show stable steering patterns and minimal diurnal temperature swings, keeping the overnight minimum firmly in the upper teens Celsius. The market’s tight clustering around 19°C reflects traders’ assessment of verified observational data and ensemble agreement, with only marginal probability assigned to deviations.
A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted nocturnal radiative cooling event under clearer skies or a localized station measurement anomaly at the official KMA site, though current conditions make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$12,058End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on June 15, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** This positioning rests on short-range forecast guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and major models, which consistently project morning lows of 18–20°C under partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions with light winds and no strong cold-air advection. Mid-June climatology supports this range, with historical average overnight lows near 19–21°C as the East Asian summer monsoon begins to influence humidity without yet delivering widespread cooling.
Recent model runs show stable steering patterns and minimal diurnal temperature swings, keeping the overnight minimum firmly in the upper teens Celsius. The market’s tight clustering around 19°C reflects traders’ assessment of verified observational data and ensemble agreement, with only marginal probability assigned to deviations.
A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted nocturnal radiative cooling event under clearer skies or a localized station measurement anomaly at the official KMA site, though current conditions make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,058End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on June 15, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** This positioning rests on short-range forecast guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and major models, which consistently project morning lows of 18–20°C under partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions with light winds and no strong cold-air advection. Mid-June climatology supports this range, with historical average overnight lows near 19–21°C as the East Asian summer monsoon begins to influence humidity without yet delivering widespread cooling. Recent model runs show stable steering patterns and minimal diurnal temperature swings, keeping the overnight minimum firmly in the upper teens Celsius. The market’s tight clustering around 19°C reflects traders’ assessment of verified observational data and ensemble agreement, with only marginal probability assigned to deviations. A realistic challenge could arise from an unforecasted nocturnal radiative cooling event under clearer skies or a localized station measurement anomaly at the official KMA site, though current conditions make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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