Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11°C (35%) and 10°C (33.5%) for London's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting an overnight minimum of 11°C amid clear skies and light easterly winds of 5-6 mph, which promote radiative cooling but are moderated by the urban heat island effect and recent mild days with minimums around 11°C. Hourly models show temperatures dipping to 11°C near dawn after starting at 14°C post-sunset, though ensemble uncertainty arises from potential wind reductions or thinner cloud cover overnight, allowing slightly deeper cooling to 10°C in rural fringes or if high pressure strengthens. Climatological May 1 lows average 8-9°C at Heathrow, but current high-pressure ridging supports above-normal stability; watch evening updates from the Met Office for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 1?
Lowest temperature in London on May 1?
10°C 34%
11°C 28%
9°C 21%
12°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
21%
10°C
34%
11°C
35%
12°C
20%
13°C or higher
5%
10°C 34%
11°C 28%
9°C 21%
12°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
3°C or below
$207 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$202 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$161 Vol.
1%
6°C
$727 Vol.
1%
7°C
$329 Vol.
1%
8°C
$306 Vol.
1%
9°C
$80 Vol.
21%
10°C
$133 Vol.
34%
11°C
$283 Vol.
35%
12°C
$141 Vol.
20%
13°C or higher
$972 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11°C (35%) and 10°C (33.5%) for London's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting an overnight minimum of 11°C amid clear skies and light easterly winds of 5-6 mph, which promote radiative cooling but are moderated by the urban heat island effect and recent mild days with minimums around 11°C. Hourly models show temperatures dipping to 11°C near dawn after starting at 14°C post-sunset, though ensemble uncertainty arises from potential wind reductions or thinner cloud cover overnight, allowing slightly deeper cooling to 10°C in rural fringes or if high pressure strengthens. Climatological May 1 lows average 8-9°C at Heathrow, but current high-pressure ridging supports above-normal stability; watch evening updates from the Met Office for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$3,334End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11°C (35%) and 10°C (33.5%) for London's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting an overnight minimum of 11°C amid clear skies and light easterly winds of 5-6 mph, which promote radiative cooling but are moderated by the urban heat island effect and recent mild days with minimums around 11°C. Hourly models show temperatures dipping to 11°C near dawn after starting at 14°C post-sunset, though ensemble uncertainty arises from potential wind reductions or thinner cloud cover overnight, allowing slightly deeper cooling to 10°C in rural fringes or if high pressure strengthens. Climatological May 1 lows average 8-9°C at Heathrow, but current high-pressure ridging supports above-normal stability; watch evening updates from the Met Office for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,334End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11°C (35%) and 10°C (33.5%) for London's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting an overnight minimum of 11°C amid clear skies and light easterly winds of 5-6 mph, which promote radiative cooling but are moderated by the urban heat island effect and recent mild days with minimums around 11°C. Hourly models show temperatures dipping to 11°C near dawn after starting at 14°C post-sunset, though ensemble uncertainty arises from potential wind reductions or thinner cloud cover overnight, allowing slightly deeper cooling to 10°C in rural fringes or if high pressure strengthens. Climatological May 1 lows average 8-9°C at Heathrow, but current high-pressure ridging supports above-normal stability; watch evening updates from the Met Office for refinements ahead of resolution using official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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