Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 30 to May 2, 2026, at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent variable posting patterns tracked by real-time tools like xtracker showing a 26-post daily average through April 24-30 but dipping to 18 posts over the April 28-May 5 window's early progress. This moderate frontrunner edges out <40 at 23% amid no confirmed major catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla announcements in the next 72 hours, though political buzz or viral replies could spur bursts as seen in his April 30 activity including Falcon congrats and X ad upgrades. Higher buckets trail due to historical precedents of 20-30 daily posts without event-driven spikes, underscoring the crowd's skin-in-the-game bet on steady but not explosive engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 49%
<40 23%
65-89 21%
90-114 7%
$343,442 Vol.
$343,442 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
23%
40-64
49%
65-89
21%
90-114
7%
115-139
2%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 49%
<40 23%
65-89 21%
90-114 7%
$343,442 Vol.
$343,442 Vol.
May 2, 2026
<40
$52,423 Vol.
23%
40-64
$25,577 Vol.
49%
65-89
$22,782 Vol.
21%
90-114
$37,345 Vol.
7%
115-139
$22,100 Vol.
2%
140-164
$18,729 Vol.
1%
165-189
$25,556 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$63,969 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$40,883 Vol.
<1%
240+
$36,297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 30 to May 2, 2026, at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent variable posting patterns tracked by real-time tools like xtracker showing a 26-post daily average through April 24-30 but dipping to 18 posts over the April 28-May 5 window's early progress. This moderate frontrunner edges out <40 at 23% amid no confirmed major catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla announcements in the next 72 hours, though political buzz or viral replies could spur bursts as seen in his April 30 activity including Falcon congrats and X ad upgrades. Higher buckets trail due to historical precedents of 20-30 daily posts without event-driven spikes, underscoring the crowd's skin-in-the-game bet on steady but not explosive engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$343,442End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 30 to May 2, 2026, at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent variable posting patterns tracked by real-time tools like xtracker showing a 26-post daily average through April 24-30 but dipping to 18 posts over the April 28-May 5 window's early progress. This moderate frontrunner edges out <40 at 23% amid no confirmed major catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla announcements in the next 72 hours, though political buzz or viral replies could spur bursts as seen in his April 30 activity including Falcon congrats and X ad upgrades. Higher buckets trail due to historical precedents of 20-30 daily posts without event-driven spikes, underscoring the crowd's skin-in-the-game bet on steady but not explosive engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$343,442End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 30 to May 2, 2026, at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent variable posting patterns tracked by real-time tools like xtracker showing a 26-post daily average through April 24-30 but dipping to 18 posts over the April 28-May 5 window's early progress. This moderate frontrunner edges out <40 at 23% amid no confirmed major catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla announcements in the next 72 hours, though political buzz or viral replies could spur bursts as seen in his April 30 activity including Falcon congrats and X ad upgrades. Higher buckets trail due to historical precedents of 20-30 daily posts without event-driven spikes, underscoring the crowd's skin-in-the-game bet on steady but not explosive engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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