Ongoing US-mediated negotiations since 2025 center on a security framework to replace the 1974 disengagement agreement, with Israel seeking demilitarized zones, no-fly restrictions, and guarantees against Iranian proxies or attacks from southern Syria, while Damascus presses for Israeli withdrawal from territory seized after the Assad regime’s collapse. A January 2026 Paris round produced a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and rapid dispute resolution, reflecting progress under US envoy pressure but falling short of a comprehensive pact. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has signaled openness to non-aggression terms tied to pre-2025 lines, whereas Israeli officials emphasize verifiable security arrangements before any territorial concessions. Trader views hinge on whether sustained diplomatic momentum, including potential follow-on talks, can bridge these gaps amid regional stabilization efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Syria security agreement by...?
$8,495,470 Vol.
June 30
4%
$8,495,470 Vol.
June 30
4%
This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.
Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.
Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.
Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.
Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-mediated negotiations since 2025 center on a security framework to replace the 1974 disengagement agreement, with Israel seeking demilitarized zones, no-fly restrictions, and guarantees against Iranian proxies or attacks from southern Syria, while Damascus presses for Israeli withdrawal from territory seized after the Assad regime’s collapse. A January 2026 Paris round produced a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and rapid dispute resolution, reflecting progress under US envoy pressure but falling short of a comprehensive pact. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has signaled openness to non-aggression terms tied to pre-2025 lines, whereas Israeli officials emphasize verifiable security arrangements before any territorial concessions. Trader views hinge on whether sustained diplomatic momentum, including potential follow-on talks, can bridge these gaps amid regional stabilization efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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