Trader consensus reflects a 90.1% implied probability against Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 that severely damaged key enrichment facilities like Isfahan, burying much of Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble per IAEA assessments. No radiation spikes or verified reconstitution efforts have emerged since, with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi noting restricted access and ongoing verification gaps as of late April. Iran's latest diplomatic proposal, reviewed by President Trump on April 28, prioritizes Strait of Hormuz de-escalation over immediate nuclear restraints, prompting U.S. dissatisfaction amid stalled talks. Despite short estimated breakout times of 1-3 months for weapons-grade material, weaponization barriers—design, testing, delivery systems—remain high under sanctions and military pressure, with no credible reports of a functional device. Late-breaking escalation or covert advances could shift odds.