Severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from US strikes in June 2025 has halted enrichment activities and set back weaponization efforts, as confirmed in IAEA reports through February 2026 showing no resumption of uranium enrichment and denied inspector access to key sites like Isfahan, where much of the pre-attack 440 kg highly enriched uranium stockpile remains buried. Recent diplomatic developments, including Iran's April 2026 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran ceasefire talks, signal de-escalation rather than provocative testing. With no verifiable signs of an imminent nuclear test—such as device assembly or test site preparations—traders price a 90% "No" probability before 2027, though rapid program reconstitution or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$181,512 Vol.
$181,512 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$181,512 Vol.
$181,512 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from US strikes in June 2025 has halted enrichment activities and set back weaponization efforts, as confirmed in IAEA reports through February 2026 showing no resumption of uranium enrichment and denied inspector access to key sites like Isfahan, where much of the pre-attack 440 kg highly enriched uranium stockpile remains buried. Recent diplomatic developments, including Iran's April 2026 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran ceasefire talks, signal de-escalation rather than provocative testing. With no verifiable signs of an imminent nuclear test—such as device assembly or test site preparations—traders price a 90% "No" probability before 2027, though rapid program reconstitution or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$181,512End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from US strikes in June 2025 has halted enrichment activities and set back weaponization efforts, as confirmed in IAEA reports through February 2026 showing no resumption of uranium enrichment and denied inspector access to key sites like Isfahan, where much of the pre-attack 440 kg highly enriched uranium stockpile remains buried. Recent diplomatic developments, including Iran's April 2026 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran ceasefire talks, signal de-escalation rather than provocative testing. With no verifiable signs of an imminent nuclear test—such as device assembly or test site preparations—traders price a 90% "No" probability before 2027, though rapid program reconstitution or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$181,512End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from US strikes in June 2025 has halted enrichment activities and set back weaponization efforts, as confirmed in IAEA reports through February 2026 showing no resumption of uranium enrichment and denied inspector access to key sites like Isfahan, where much of the pre-attack 440 kg highly enriched uranium stockpile remains buried. Recent diplomatic developments, including Iran's April 2026 peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran ceasefire talks, signal de-escalation rather than provocative testing. With no verifiable signs of an imminent nuclear test—such as device assembly or test site preparations—traders price a 90% "No" probability before 2027, though rapid program reconstitution or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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