President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China briefly elevated expectations of a potential end to the 1992 moratorium, prompting Russian counter-moves and congressional pushback. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicated that restoring underground explosive testing capability at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, no such test has occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to completion by year-end amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, CTBT-related constraints, and legislative proposals requiring congressional approval. Key near-term catalysts include any new administration directives on test readiness funding or diplomatic developments with nuclear rivals that could accelerate or further delay preparations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$669,967 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
1%
September 30, 2026
5%
December 31, 2026
9%
$669,967 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$42,073 Vol.
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September 30, 2026
$7,044 Vol.
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$10,632 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China briefly elevated expectations of a potential end to the 1992 moratorium, prompting Russian counter-moves and congressional pushback. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicated that restoring underground explosive testing capability at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, no such test has occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to completion by year-end amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, CTBT-related constraints, and legislative proposals requiring congressional approval. Key near-term catalysts include any new administration directives on test readiness funding or diplomatic developments with nuclear rivals that could accelerate or further delay preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$669,967End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China briefly elevated expectations of a potential end to the 1992 moratorium, prompting Russian counter-moves and congressional pushback. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicated that restoring underground explosive testing capability at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, no such test has occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to completion by year-end amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, CTBT-related constraints, and legislative proposals requiring congressional approval. Key near-term catalysts include any new administration directives on test readiness funding or diplomatic developments with nuclear rivals that could accelerate or further delay preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$669,967End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to prepare U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China briefly elevated expectations of a potential end to the 1992 moratorium, prompting Russian counter-moves and congressional pushback. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Department officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicated that restoring underground explosive testing capability at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, no such test has occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to completion by year-end amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, CTBT-related constraints, and legislative proposals requiring congressional approval. Key near-term catalysts include any new administration directives on test readiness funding or diplomatic developments with nuclear rivals that could accelerate or further delay preparations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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