Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent health rumors, including reports of severe facial and leg injuries requiring recovery and plastic surgery, have fueled uncertainty, as he has yet to appear publicly and issued only written messages calling for military resistance. Iranian officials deny serious issues, while New York Times reporting suggests real power lies with IRGC generals. Reza Pahlavi's 10% implies slim odds for opposition transition, given regime continuity and ongoing war pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%
Reza Pahlavi 9%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.6%
No Head of State 2.5%
$7,049,208 Vol.
$7,049,208 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
60%
Reza Pahlavi
9%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
5%
No Head of State
3%
Ahmad Vahidi
2%
Hassan Rouhani
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mohammad Khatami
1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 59.7%
Reza Pahlavi 9%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 4.6%
No Head of State 2.5%
$7,049,208 Vol.
$7,049,208 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
$1,718,527 Vol.
60%
Reza Pahlavi
$167,712 Vol.
9%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
$181,329 Vol.
5%
No Head of State
$376,324 Vol.
3%
Ahmad Vahidi
$207,686 Vol.
2%
Hassan Rouhani
$283,228 Vol.
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
$54,268 Vol.
1%
Abbas Araghchi
$111,091 Vol.
1%
Maryam Rajavi
$261,425 Vol.
1%
Alireza Arafi
$789,050 Vol.
1%
Hassan Khomeini
$746,346 Vol.
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$264,993 Vol.
1%
Mohammad Khatami
$399,865 Vol.
1%
Massoud Rajavi
$30,277 Vol.
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
$180,911 Vol.
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
$280,891 Vol.
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
$162,384 Vol.
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$39,675 Vol.
<1%
Navid Shomali
$56,900 Vol.
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
$77,430 Vol.
<1%
Saeed Jalili
$51,849 Vol.
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
$78,412 Vol.
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
$36,043 Vol.
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
$25,178 Vol.
<1%
Ali Motahari
$53,657 Vol.
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
$39,451 Vol.
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
$50,527 Vol.
<1%
Mohsen Araki
$38,738 Vol.
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
$18,834 Vol.
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
$30,215 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent health rumors, including reports of severe facial and leg injuries requiring recovery and plastic surgery, have fueled uncertainty, as he has yet to appear publicly and issued only written messages calling for military resistance. Iranian officials deny serious issues, while New York Times reporting suggests real power lies with IRGC generals. Reza Pahlavi's 10% implies slim odds for opposition transition, given regime continuity and ongoing war pressures.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$7,049,208End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent health rumors, including reports of severe facial and leg injuries requiring recovery and plastic surgery, have fueled uncertainty, as he has yet to appear publicly and issued only written messages calling for military resistance. Iranian officials deny serious issues, while New York Times reporting suggests real power lies with IRGC generals. Reza Pahlavi's 10% implies slim odds for opposition transition, given regime continuity and ongoing war pressures.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$7,049,208End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 59.7% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, reflecting his official selection by the Assembly of Experts on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes amid escalating regional conflict. Recent health rumors, including reports of severe facial and leg injuries requiring recovery and plastic surgery, have fueled uncertainty, as he has yet to appear publicly and issued only written messages calling for military resistance. Iranian officials deny serious issues, while New York Times reporting suggests real power lies with IRGC generals. Reza Pahlavi's 10% implies slim odds for opposition transition, given regime continuity and ongoing war pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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