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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.2%

Reza Pahlavi 5%

Abbas Araghchi 2.7%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Polymarket

$15,025,257 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.2%

Reza Pahlavi 5%

Abbas Araghchi 2.7%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Polymarket

$15,025,257 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,668,696 Vol.

80%

Reza Pahlavi

$288,986 Vol.

5%

Abbas Araghchi

$537,874 Vol.

3%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$822,271 Vol.

3%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,135,957 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$1,937,787 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$611,702 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$497,096 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$664,839 Vol.

1%

Ali Motahari

$161,816 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$339,698 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$319,174 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$448,494 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$200,325 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$637,040 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$450,571 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$234,061 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$148,875 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$79,038 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$130,655 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$69,150 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$317,203 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$144,879 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$135,524 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$123,062 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$673,704 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$460,030 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$175,547 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$98,876 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$275,519 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80% implied probability in the Iran leadership market for end of 2026 because he was formally selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. IRGC influence accelerated the transition despite concerns over hereditary succession, and Mojtaba has since consolidated authority through meetings with regime officials and public statements amid ongoing conflict. Alternative candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, Abbas Araghchi, Alireza Arafi, and Hassan Khomeini trade at single-digit levels as the clerical body has already resolved the immediate succession, leaving limited near-term pathways for challengers. Trader consensus prices continuity through year-end given Mojtaba's institutional backing and the absence of major reported shifts in the three months since his elevation.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$15,025,257
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 80% implied probability in the Iran leadership market for end of 2026 because he was formally selected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. IRGC influence accelerated the transition despite concerns over hereditary succession, and Mojtaba has since consolidated authority through meetings with regime officials and public statements amid ongoing conflict. Alternative candidates such as Reza Pahlavi, Abbas Araghchi, Alireza Arafi, and Hassan Khomeini trade at single-digit levels as the clerical body has already resolved the immediate succession, leaving limited near-term pathways for challengers. Trader consensus prices continuity through year-end given Mojtaba's institutional backing and the absence of major reported shifts in the three months since his elevation.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$15,025,257
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 80%, seguido de "Reza Pahlavi" con 5%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 80¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $15 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 80%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reza Pahlavi" con 5%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.