Skip to main content
icon for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

icon for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

400-500k 49%

500-600k 20.0%

300-400k 19%

200-300k 10%

Polymarket

$111,354 Vol.

400-500k 49%

500-600k 20.0%

300-400k 19%

200-300k 10%

Polymarket

$111,354 Vol.

<200k

$7,894 Vol.

2%

200-300k

$8,643 Vol.

10%

300-400k

$14,049 Vol.

19%

400-500k

$6,153 Vol.

49%

500-600k

$5,248 Vol.

20%

600-700k

$5,130 Vol.

2%

700-800k

$39,612 Vol.

1%

800-900k

$11,830 Vol.

1%

900k-1m

$6,209 Vol.

1%

>1m

$6,586 Vol.

1%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Current trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations in 2026, reflecting ICE removal rates that have stabilized around 1,250-1,400 daily since late 2025.** This pace projects to roughly 460k annually, driven by quadrupled interior arrests, expanded detention capacity nearing 70k at peaks, and redirected resources after sharp declines in border encounters. Administration targets of 1 million removals per year remain unmet due to logistical limits, court backlogs, legal challenges including thousands of habeas petitions, and a recent moderation in arrests. FY2026 data through early 2026 shows continued growth over prior years but well below goals, with traders weighting these sustained operational realities over stated policy ambitions.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$111,354
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Current trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations in 2026, reflecting ICE removal rates that have stabilized around 1,250-1,400 daily since late 2025.** This pace projects to roughly 460k annually, driven by quadrupled interior arrests, expanded detention capacity nearing 70k at peaks, and redirected resources after sharp declines in border encounters. Administration targets of 1 million removals per year remain unmet due to logistical limits, court backlogs, legal challenges including thousands of habeas petitions, and a recent moderation in arrests. FY2026 data through early 2026 shows continued growth over prior years but well below goals, with traders weighting these sustained operational realities over stated policy ambitions.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$111,354
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Related

icon for Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?

11%
icon for Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

43%
icon for Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?

74%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "400-500k" at 49%, followed by "500-600k" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" has generated $111.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is "400-500k" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "500-600k" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.