Recent averages of 20-30 posts per day, drawn from May and early June tracking data, place Elon Musk’s expected weekly total in the 160-220 range and explain why the market clusters highest probability there. Daily volume swings sharply with news cycles, replies, and platform engagement, spreading implied odds across adjacent bands rather than concentrating on a single outcome. No major SpaceX, Tesla, or political events are scheduled for the period that would reliably push counts higher or lower, leaving the distribution driven by baseline activity patterns and historical variance in his X posting habits. Traders price the 180-199 band as the modal outcome while acknowledging that a quiet stretch or surge in replies could easily shift results by 40-60 posts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 17%
160-179 13%
200-219 13%
220-239 12%
$38,819 Vol.
$38,819 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
2%
120-139
3%
140-159
7%
160-179
13%
180-199
17%
200-219
13%
220-239
12%
240-259
8%
260-279
9%
280-299
7%
300-319
7%
320-339
7%
340-359
8%
360-379
10%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 17%
160-179 13%
200-219 13%
220-239 12%
$38,819 Vol.
$38,819 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
2%
120-139
3%
140-159
7%
160-179
13%
180-199
17%
200-219
13%
220-239
12%
240-259
8%
260-279
9%
280-299
7%
300-319
7%
320-339
7%
340-359
8%
360-379
10%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 6, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent averages of 20-30 posts per day, drawn from May and early June tracking data, place Elon Musk’s expected weekly total in the 160-220 range and explain why the market clusters highest probability there. Daily volume swings sharply with news cycles, replies, and platform engagement, spreading implied odds across adjacent bands rather than concentrating on a single outcome. No major SpaceX, Tesla, or political events are scheduled for the period that would reliably push counts higher or lower, leaving the distribution driven by baseline activity patterns and historical variance in his X posting habits. Traders price the 180-199 band as the modal outcome while acknowledging that a quiet stretch or surge in replies could easily shift results by 40-60 posts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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